Traders see a highly fragmented field for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October 2026, with no company above 29% implied probability. Recent mid-2026 releases of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related models, have produced the strongest showings on contamination-resistant coding benchmarks including SWE-Bench and LiveCodeBench, where agentic reasoning and repository-level tasks favor these labs. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s latest open-weight entries remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics, while Google’s Gemini 3.x and Chinese labs such as Z.ai continue iterative gains. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, fresh model drops, benchmark refreshes, and fine-tuning advances could shift relative rankings quickly, keeping sentiment evenly dispersed across a broad set of contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAmazon 31%
Z.ai 30%
Anthropic 27%
OpenAI 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Amazon
25%
Z.ai
27%
Anthropic
22%
OpenAI
26%
StepFun
13%
ByteDance
20%
SpaceXAI
25%
Meituan
20%
Meta
13%
Moonshot
21%
17%
DeepSeek
16%
Nvidia
14%
Tencent
14%
Baidu
12%
Xiaomi
11%
Mistral
11%
MiniMax
9%
Alibaba
9%
Thinky
8%
Microsoft
4%
Amazon 31%
Z.ai 30%
Anthropic 27%
OpenAI 26%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
Amazon
$54 Vol.
25%
Z.ai
$38 Vol.
27%
Anthropic
$46 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$13 Vol.
26%
StepFun
$38 Vol.
13%
ByteDance
$33 Vol.
20%
SpaceXAI
$33 Vol.
25%
Meituan
$13 Vol.
20%
Meta
$33 Vol.
13%
Moonshot
$33 Vol.
21%
$13 Vol.
17%
DeepSeek
$13 Vol.
16%
Nvidia
$79 Vol.
14%
Tencent
$33 Vol.
14%
Baidu
$44 Vol.
12%
Xiaomi
$53 Vol.
11%
Mistral
$65 Vol.
11%
MiniMax
$74 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$33 Vol.
9%
Thinky
$86 Vol.
8%
Microsoft
$53 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a highly fragmented field for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October 2026, with no company above 29% implied probability. Recent mid-2026 releases of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related models, have produced the strongest showings on contamination-resistant coding benchmarks including SWE-Bench and LiveCodeBench, where agentic reasoning and repository-level tasks favor these labs. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s latest open-weight entries remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics, while Google’s Gemini 3.x and Chinese labs such as Z.ai continue iterative gains. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, fresh model drops, benchmark refreshes, and fine-tuning advances could shift relative rankings quickly, keeping sentiment evenly dispersed across a broad set of contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volume
$871Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Traders see a highly fragmented field for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October 2026, with no company above 29% implied probability. Recent mid-2026 releases of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related models, have produced the strongest showings on contamination-resistant coding benchmarks including SWE-Bench and LiveCodeBench, where agentic reasoning and repository-level tasks favor these labs. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s latest open-weight entries remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics, while Google’s Gemini 3.x and Chinese labs such as Z.ai continue iterative gains. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, fresh model drops, benchmark refreshes, and fine-tuning advances could shift relative rankings quickly, keeping sentiment evenly dispersed across a broad set of contenders.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$871Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a highly fragmented field for the top LiveBench coding score by end of October 2026, with no company above 29% implied probability. Recent mid-2026 releases of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants, alongside OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol and related models, have produced the strongest showings on contamination-resistant coding benchmarks including SWE-Bench and LiveCodeBench, where agentic reasoning and repository-level tasks favor these labs. Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s latest open-weight entries remain competitive on cost-adjusted metrics, while Google’s Gemini 3.x and Chinese labs such as Z.ai continue iterative gains. With roughly ten weeks until resolution, fresh model drops, benchmark refreshes, and fine-tuning advances could shift relative rankings quickly, keeping sentiment evenly dispersed across a broad set of contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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