Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026—one week ahead of OpenAI—combined with active investor meetings and banker preparations targeting an October or November debut, has anchored the 83.5% market-implied probability that the Claude developer will reach public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been tempered by mid-June reports of internal deliberations favoring a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion valuation rather than accelerate at current levels near $850 billion. Both large language model companies face comparable enterprise demand and competitive pressures from hyperscalers, yet Anthropic's stronger recent revenue trajectory and earlier procedural momentum create the timing gap. Near-term catalysts include SEC comment resolution timelines and any shifts in market conditions that could compress or extend review periods for either filing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic
84% chance
$260,320 Vol.
$260,320 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
Anthropic
84% chance
$260,320 Vol.
$260,320 Vol.
31 déc. 2027
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026—one week ahead of OpenAI—combined with active investor meetings and banker preparations targeting an October or November debut, has anchored the 83.5% market-implied probability that the Claude developer will reach public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been tempered by mid-June reports of internal deliberations favoring a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion valuation rather than accelerate at current levels near $850 billion. Both large language model companies face comparable enterprise demand and competitive pressures from hyperscalers, yet Anthropic's stronger recent revenue trajectory and earlier procedural momentum create the timing gap. Near-term catalysts include SEC comment resolution timelines and any shifts in market conditions that could compress or extend review periods for either filing.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
Volume
$260,320Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026—one week ahead of OpenAI—combined with active investor meetings and banker preparations targeting an October or November debut, has anchored the 83.5% market-implied probability that the Claude developer will reach public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been tempered by mid-June reports of internal deliberations favoring a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion valuation rather than accelerate at current levels near $850 billion. Both large language model companies face comparable enterprise demand and competitive pressures from hyperscalers, yet Anthropic's stronger recent revenue trajectory and earlier procedural momentum create the timing gap. Near-term catalysts include SEC comment resolution timelines and any shifts in market conditions that could compress or extend review periods for either filing.
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$260,320Date de fin
31 déc. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 30, 2026, 5:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's confidential S-1 filing on June 1, 2026—one week ahead of OpenAI—combined with active investor meetings and banker preparations targeting an October or November debut, has anchored the 83.5% market-implied probability that the Claude developer will reach public markets first. OpenAI's June 8 filing has been tempered by mid-June reports of internal deliberations favoring a 2027 timeline to pursue a $1 trillion valuation rather than accelerate at current levels near $850 billion. Both large language model companies face comparable enterprise demand and competitive pressures from hyperscalers, yet Anthropic's stronger recent revenue trajectory and earlier procedural momentum create the timing gap. Near-term catalysts include SEC comment resolution timelines and any shifts in market conditions that could compress or extend review periods for either filing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourConnexes
La capitalisation boursière d’Anthropic atteindra-t-elle 600 milliards de dollars ou plus à la clôture du marché le jour de son introduction en bourse d’ici le 31 décembre 2027 ?
90%
Oui
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?
41%
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?
17%
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