Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, with no single lab holding a decisive edge behind the current leader. Recent model iterations from OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs including Z.ai, Moonshot, and DeepSeek have delivered comparable gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and competition-style benchmarks, keeping their implied probabilities clustered near the top. Nvidia and other hardware-focused entrants trail due to limited direct model releases in this category. Key swing factors include imminent frontier model drops, fine-tuning advances in verifiable reasoning, and how user votes aggregate on hard prompts before the October cutoff, underscoring the rapid iteration cycles typical in LLM development.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourGoogle 13%
Z.ai 11%
MiniMax 9%
Alibaba 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
19%
Z.ai
11%
MiniMax
9%
Alibaba
9%
StepFun
8%
Meta
7%
Meituan
7%
Amazon
7%
ByteDance
7%
Anthropic
7%
Moonshot
7%
SpaceXAI
6%
OpenAI
6%
Baidu
6%
Microsoft
6%
Xiaomi
5%
DeepSeek
5%
Tencent
4%
Mistral
3%
Nvidia
20%
Google 13%
Z.ai 11%
MiniMax 9%
Alibaba 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
$27 Vol.
19%
Z.ai
$27 Vol.
11%
MiniMax
$32 Vol.
9%
Alibaba
$62 Vol.
9%
StepFun
$27 Vol.
8%
Meta
$32 Vol.
7%
Meituan
$77 Vol.
7%
Amazon
$96 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$60 Vol.
7%
Anthropic
$62 Vol.
7%
Moonshot
$32 Vol.
7%
SpaceXAI
$27 Vol.
6%
OpenAI
$22 Vol.
6%
Baidu
$32 Vol.
6%
Microsoft
$207 Vol.
6%
Xiaomi
$32 Vol.
5%
DeepSeek
$27 Vol.
5%
Tencent
$100 Vol.
4%
Mistral
$62 Vol.
3%
Nvidia
$176 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, with no single lab holding a decisive edge behind the current leader. Recent model iterations from OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs including Z.ai, Moonshot, and DeepSeek have delivered comparable gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and competition-style benchmarks, keeping their implied probabilities clustered near the top. Nvidia and other hardware-focused entrants trail due to limited direct model releases in this category. Key swing factors include imminent frontier model drops, fine-tuning advances in verifiable reasoning, and how user votes aggregate on hard prompts before the October cutoff, underscoring the rapid iteration cycles typical in LLM development.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$1,217Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, with no single lab holding a decisive edge behind the current leader. Recent model iterations from OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs including Z.ai, Moonshot, and DeepSeek have delivered comparable gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and competition-style benchmarks, keeping their implied probabilities clustered near the top. Nvidia and other hardware-focused entrants trail due to limited direct model releases in this category. Key swing factors include imminent frontier model drops, fine-tuning advances in verifiable reasoning, and how user votes aggregate on hard prompts before the October cutoff, underscoring the rapid iteration cycles typical in LLM development.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,217Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for second place on the arena.ai Text Arena Math leaderboard by late October, with no single lab holding a decisive edge behind the current leader. Recent model iterations from OpenAI, Anthropic, and several Chinese labs including Z.ai, Moonshot, and DeepSeek have delivered comparable gains in multi-step mathematical reasoning and competition-style benchmarks, keeping their implied probabilities clustered near the top. Nvidia and other hardware-focused entrants trail due to limited direct model releases in this category. Key swing factors include imminent frontier model drops, fine-tuning advances in verifiable reasoning, and how user votes aggregate on hard prompts before the October cutoff, underscoring the rapid iteration cycles typical in LLM development.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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