Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAugust 25 31%
August 19 31%
August 20 31%
August 10 29.1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
On or prior to August 1
1%
August 2
1%
August 3
-
August 4
29%
August 5
30%
August 6
6%
August 7
31%
August 8
7%
August 9
6%
August 10
29%
August 11
31%
August 12
-
August 13
27%
August 14
22%
August 15
1%
August 16
10%
August 17
27%
August 18
28%
August 19
31%
August 20
31%
August 21
-
August 22
-
August 23
29%
August 24
-
August 25
31%
August 26
-
August 27
25%
August 28
31%
August 29
18%
August 30
22%
August 31
1%
No release by August 31
12%
August 25 31%
August 19 31%
August 20 31%
August 10 29.1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 août 2026
On or prior to August 1
$44 Vol.
1%
August 2
$274 Vol.
1%
August 3
$141 Vol.
-
August 4
$177 Vol.
29%
August 5
$382 Vol.
30%
August 6
$217 Vol.
6%
August 7
$377 Vol.
31%
August 8
$177 Vol.
7%
August 9
$196 Vol.
6%
August 10
$246 Vol.
29%
August 11
$177 Vol.
31%
August 12
$176 Vol.
-
August 13
$177 Vol.
27%
August 14
$177 Vol.
22%
August 15
$177 Vol.
1%
August 16
$177 Vol.
10%
August 17
$177 Vol.
27%
August 18
$177 Vol.
28%
August 19
$177 Vol.
31%
August 20
$177 Vol.
31%
August 21
$172 Vol.
-
August 22
$172 Vol.
-
August 23
$177 Vol.
29%
August 24
$177 Vol.
-
August 25
$177 Vol.
31%
August 26
$145 Vol.
-
August 27
$211 Vol.
25%
August 28
$177 Vol.
31%
August 29
$177 Vol.
18%
August 30
$177 Vol.
22%
August 31
$177 Vol.
1%
No release by August 31
$794 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Volume
$6,731Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$6,731Date de fin
31 août 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Google's repeated delays in shipping Gemini 3.5 Pro—pushed from a June target to July and now absent from the July 21 update that added lighter Flash variants—drive the clustered mid-to-late August probabilities. Traders see ongoing internal performance tuning, partner testing, and a full model rebuild as the main catalysts, with recent confirmation that Gemini 4 pre-training has begun adding competitive pressure to finalize the Pro release. The tight spread across August dates reflects uncertainty over last-minute tweaks versus a firm ship window, as Google balances quality against rivals like Claude and GPT-5.6 while historical patterns show frontier model timelines often slip.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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