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icon for Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ?
Tech·Leopold Aschenbrenner

Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ?

icon for Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ?
Tech·Leopold Aschenbrenner

Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ?

Oui

5% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU

Oui

5% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent portfolio adjustments at Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, have driven the 95.5% market-implied odds against confirming an Anthropic stake sale by August 31. The firm explicitly retained its substantial private holding in the large language model developer—valued near $965 billion post its May Series H—while offloading most public equities to Citadel amid losses. Anthropic continues independent growth toward a potential October IPO rather than acquisition, with no regulatory filings, leadership statements, or credible reports signaling an imminent transaction. This near-term timeline leaves little room for sudden liquidity events or buyer interest to materialize, though an unexpected distress sale or strategic offer could still shift outcomes before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify.

New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify.

Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,209
Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent portfolio adjustments at Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund led by Leopold Aschenbrenner, have driven the 95.5% market-implied odds against confirming an Anthropic stake sale by August 31. The firm explicitly retained its substantial private holding in the large language model developer—valued near $965 billion post its May Series H—while offloading most public equities to Citadel amid losses. Anthropic continues independent growth toward a potential October IPO rather than acquisition, with no regulatory filings, leadership statements, or credible reports signaling an imminent transaction. This near-term timeline leaves little room for sudden liquidity events or buyer interest to materialize, though an unexpected distress sale or strategic offer could still shift outcomes before resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify.

New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify.

Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,209
Marché ouvert
Jul 30, 2026, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that Situational Awareness has sold any portion of its Anthropic equity by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A sale means a transfer of beneficial ownership of Anthropic equity to a third party for value, including a sale into a tender offer or secondary transaction. A distribution of Anthropic equity in kind to investors, a transfer to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle, or a pledge of Anthropic equity as collateral will not qualify. An agreement or stated intention to sell, without a completed sale, will not qualify. New confirmation of a previously undisclosed sale confirmed to have been made prior to this market’s creation will not qualify. Confirmation of such a sale must come before the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Information made public after this deadline will not qualify regardless of whether it confirms a prior sale. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Connexes

icon for Anthropic acquise avant 2027 ?

Anthropic acquise avant 2027 ?

4%
Oui
icon for Conscience situationnelle annonce la liquidation du fonds d’ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

Conscience situationnelle annonce la liquidation du fonds d’ici le 31 décembre 2026 ?

12%
Oui
icon for La valorisation d'Anthropic atteindra-t-elle (HAUT) 1,15 T$ d'ici le 31 juillet ?

La valorisation d'Anthropic atteindra-t-elle (HAUT) 1,15 T$ d'ici le 31 juillet ?

52%
Oui

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Vente Situational Awareness Anthropic confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? » à 5%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 5¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 5% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jul 30, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? » est « Vente Situational Awareness Anthropic confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? » à seulement 5%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Conscience de la situation Vente anthropique confirmée d'ici le 31 août ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.