Recent model releases have intensified competition among Chinese AI labs, with Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max posting the strongest recent benchmark results while DeepSeek, ByteDance’s Doubao, Baidu’s ERNIE, Tencent’s Hunyuan, and Z.ai’s GLM series deliver competitive performance on coding, agent tasks, and efficiency. Traders see no dominant second-place contender because strengths differ—open-weight availability and cost for some, long context or consumer apps for others—creating a fluid ranking that can shift with new benchmarks or updates before October resolution. This parity, plus rapid iteration under compute constraints, keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourMoonshot 46%
Baidu 46%
Tencent 46%
Z.ai 45%

Moonshot
46%

Baidu
46%

Tencent
46%

Z.ai
45%

Xiaomi
45%

StepFun
44%

Alibaba
44%

Meituan
43%

ByteDance
42%

DeepSeek
42%

MiniMax
41%
Moonshot 46%
Baidu 46%
Tencent 46%
Z.ai 45%

Moonshot
46%

Baidu
46%

Tencent
46%

Z.ai
45%

Xiaomi
45%

StepFun
44%

Alibaba
44%

Meituan
43%

ByteDance
42%

DeepSeek
42%

MiniMax
41%
Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Chinese Companies include but are not limited to Alibaba, Moonshot, Baidu, Z.ai, Xiaomi, DeepSeek, ByteDance, MiniMax, Meituan, Tencent, and StepFun. Companies not headquartered in China or not primarily owned or operating within the Chinese technology ecosystem are not considered primarily Chinese.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant qualifying Chinese AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model releases have intensified competition among Chinese AI labs, with Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and Alibaba’s Qwen3.8 Max posting the strongest recent benchmark results while DeepSeek, ByteDance’s Doubao, Baidu’s ERNIE, Tencent’s Hunyuan, and Z.ai’s GLM series deliver competitive performance on coding, agent tasks, and efficiency. Traders see no dominant second-place contender because strengths differ—open-weight availability and cost for some, long context or consumer apps for others—creating a fluid ranking that can shift with new benchmarks or updates before October resolution. This parity, plus rapid iteration under compute constraints, keeps implied probabilities tightly clustered.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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