Recent releases of frontier large language models have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard, with Anthropic's Claude family holding the top spots as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across multiple labs reflects uncertainty over which contender—OpenAI's latest GPT variants, Google's Gemini updates, or rising Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba—will post the strongest gains before October resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, benchmark improvements in reasoning and coding, and any shifts in model availability or performance that could alter lab rankings under the "Labs" filter. Historical patterns show rapid leaderboard volatility following major model drops, underscoring the skin-in-the-game assessment traders apply to these short-term horizons.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourStepFun 28%
Anthropic 21%
Nvidia 18%
Z.ai 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
StepFun
15%
Anthropic
21%
Nvidia
18%
Z.ai
16%
OpenAI
15%
Meta
15%
Alibaba
14%
Moonshot
14%
MiniMax
14%
DeepSeek
14%
SpaceXAI
13%
ByteDance
7%
Microsoft
7%
Baidu
23%
Xiaomi
6%
Tencent
4%
Amazon
3%
Meituan
3%
Mistral
3%
Thinky
28%
30%
StepFun 28%
Anthropic 21%
Nvidia 18%
Z.ai 16%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 oct. 2026
StepFun
$37 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$35 Vol.
21%
Nvidia
$35 Vol.
18%
Z.ai
$35 Vol.
16%
OpenAI
$35 Vol.
15%
Meta
$17 Vol.
15%
Alibaba
$35 Vol.
14%
Moonshot
$35 Vol.
14%
MiniMax
$127 Vol.
14%
DeepSeek
$35 Vol.
14%
SpaceXAI
$17 Vol.
13%
ByteDance
$97 Vol.
7%
Microsoft
$141 Vol.
7%
Baidu
$35 Vol.
23%
Xiaomi
$110 Vol.
6%
Tencent
$74 Vol.
4%
Amazon
$42 Vol.
3%
Meituan
$24 Vol.
3%
Mistral
$63 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$95 Vol.
28%
$33 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of frontier large language models have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard, with Anthropic's Claude family holding the top spots as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across multiple labs reflects uncertainty over which contender—OpenAI's latest GPT variants, Google's Gemini updates, or rising Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba—will post the strongest gains before October resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, benchmark improvements in reasoning and coding, and any shifts in model availability or performance that could alter lab rankings under the "Labs" filter. Historical patterns show rapid leaderboard volatility following major model drops, underscoring the skin-in-the-game assessment traders apply to these short-term horizons.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$1,156Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of frontier large language models have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard, with Anthropic's Claude family holding the top spots as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across multiple labs reflects uncertainty over which contender—OpenAI's latest GPT variants, Google's Gemini updates, or rising Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba—will post the strongest gains before October resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, benchmark improvements in reasoning and coding, and any shifts in model availability or performance that could alter lab rankings under the "Labs" filter. Historical patterns show rapid leaderboard volatility following major model drops, underscoring the skin-in-the-game assessment traders apply to these short-term horizons.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$1,156Date de fin
31 oct. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of frontier large language models have intensified competition for second place on arena.ai's Text Arena leaderboard, with Anthropic's Claude family holding the top spots as of mid-August 2026. Trader consensus at roughly even odds across multiple labs reflects uncertainty over which contender—OpenAI's latest GPT variants, Google's Gemini updates, or rising Chinese developers like DeepSeek and Alibaba—will post the strongest gains before October resolution. Key swing factors include upcoming capability demonstrations, benchmark improvements in reasoning and coding, and any shifts in model availability or performance that could alter lab rankings under the "Labs" filter. Historical patterns show rapid leaderboard volatility following major model drops, underscoring the skin-in-the-game assessment traders apply to these short-term horizons.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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