Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of September, reflecting recent strong showings from its Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 variants on the dynamic benchmark. Close contenders from Moonshot (Kimi), Z.ai, and Google sit near 23-26% amid rapid model releases that keep scores tightly clustered across reasoning, coding, and knowledge categories. OpenAI trails at 13.5% despite GPT-5 family updates, while lower odds for Meta, DeepSeek, and others underscore the fragmented landscape where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Traders are pricing in ongoing frontier competition and potential late-summer releases that could alter current leaderboard positions before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 52%
Xiaomi 37%
Z.ai 28%
OpenAI 26%

Anthropic
35%

Xiaomi
37%

Z.ai
28%

OpenAI
26%

Alibaba
23%

Moonshot
23%

Tencent
22%

Amazon
21%

ByteDance
21%

Meituan
19%

DeepSeek
16%

Baidu
10%

SpaceXAI
22%

Nvidia
23%

Thinky
23%

Mistral
22%

MiniMax
14%

23%

Microsoft
4%

StepFun
3%

Meta
35%
Anthropic 52%
Xiaomi 37%
Z.ai 28%
OpenAI 26%

Anthropic
35%

Xiaomi
37%

Z.ai
28%

OpenAI
26%

Alibaba
23%

Moonshot
23%

Tencent
22%

Amazon
21%

ByteDance
21%

Meituan
19%

DeepSeek
16%

Baidu
10%

SpaceXAI
22%

Nvidia
23%

Thinky
23%

Mistral
22%

MiniMax
14%

23%

Microsoft
4%

StepFun
3%

Meta
35%
Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 6:13 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the “Overall” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “All,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Source de résolution
https://livebench.ai/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the highest market-implied odds at 32% for the top LiveBench overall score by end of September, reflecting recent strong showings from its Claude 5 Opus and Fable 5 variants on the dynamic benchmark. Close contenders from Moonshot (Kimi), Z.ai, and Google sit near 23-26% amid rapid model releases that keep scores tightly clustered across reasoning, coding, and knowledge categories. OpenAI trails at 13.5% despite GPT-5 family updates, while lower odds for Meta, DeepSeek, and others underscore the fragmented landscape where small benchmark edges can shift quickly. Traders are pricing in ongoing frontier competition and potential late-summer releases that could alter current leaderboard positions before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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