Super Typhoon Dolphin has undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and entered a region of drier air and less favorable ocean conditions, driving rapid weakening from its July peak above 160 mph. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center-equivalent guidance now show the system at or below Category 1 intensity (roughly 75–85 mph) as it approaches eastern China, with landfall in Zhejiang Province expected within hours amid continued decay from terrain interaction and the subtropical ridge steering. The 99.3% market-implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus trajectory and climatological precedent that few western Pacific systems maintain major intensity that close to the Asian mainland. A realistic shift would require an abrupt track change delaying landfall by several days over warmer waters, which current model runs do not support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin make landfall at Category 4 strength or higher?
<1% chance
$16,912 Vol.
$16,912 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
<1% chance
$16,912 Vol.
$16,912 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin has undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and entered a region of drier air and less favorable ocean conditions, driving rapid weakening from its July peak above 160 mph. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center-equivalent guidance now show the system at or below Category 1 intensity (roughly 75–85 mph) as it approaches eastern China, with landfall in Zhejiang Province expected within hours amid continued decay from terrain interaction and the subtropical ridge steering. The 99.3% market-implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus trajectory and climatological precedent that few western Pacific systems maintain major intensity that close to the Asian mainland. A realistic shift would require an abrupt track change delaying landfall by several days over warmer waters, which current model runs do not support.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$16,912Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Super Typhoon Dolphin has undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and entered a region of drier air and less favorable ocean conditions, driving rapid weakening from its July peak above 160 mph. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center-equivalent guidance now show the system at or below Category 1 intensity (roughly 75–85 mph) as it approaches eastern China, with landfall in Zhejiang Province expected within hours amid continued decay from terrain interaction and the subtropical ridge steering. The 99.3% market-implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus trajectory and climatological precedent that few western Pacific systems maintain major intensity that close to the Asian mainland. A realistic shift would require an abrupt track change delaying landfall by several days over warmer waters, which current model runs do not support.
This market resolves "Yes" if Super Typhoon Dolphin makes landfall on any landmass while the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing shows maximum sustained wind speed near center of 105 knots or higher, corresponding approximately to Category 4 equivalent intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Landfall is defined as the center of Dolphin's circulation physically crossing any coastline, as determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming landfall.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing is authoritative for both position and intensity; no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on land, the market resolves based on that advisory's wind speed. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the intensity is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin makes landfall with the most recent prior JMA advisory showing maximum sustained winds below 105 knots, if Dolphin dissipates without making landfall on any territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Volume
$16,912End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Super Typhoon Dolphin has undergone multiple eyewall replacement cycles and entered a region of drier air and less favorable ocean conditions, driving rapid weakening from its July peak above 160 mph. Official Joint Typhoon Warning Center and National Hurricane Center-equivalent guidance now show the system at or below Category 1 intensity (roughly 75–85 mph) as it approaches eastern China, with landfall in Zhejiang Province expected within hours amid continued decay from terrain interaction and the subtropical ridge steering. The 99.3% market-implied probability for “No” reflects this consensus trajectory and climatological precedent that few western Pacific systems maintain major intensity that close to the Asian mainland. A realistic shift would require an abrupt track change delaying landfall by several days over warmer waters, which current model runs do not support.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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