Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure targeting catastrophic risks from frontier models have gained recent momentum, yet House leaders adjourned without floor action and remain divided over regulatory scope, liability standards, and preemption of state laws. President Trump’s public opposition to new oversight, combined with Speaker Johnson’s reluctance to rush legislation, has slowed progress amid midterm election timing. Multiple bills advanced in committee earlier in 2026, but none reached enactment, reflecting persistent partisan and industry hurdles. Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no comprehensive federal AI safety bill will pass before 2027, consistent with historical patterns of delayed consensus on emerging technology regulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
11% chance
$133,427 Vol.
$133,427 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
11% chance
$133,427 Vol.
$133,427 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure targeting catastrophic risks from frontier models have gained recent momentum, yet House leaders adjourned without floor action and remain divided over regulatory scope, liability standards, and preemption of state laws. President Trump’s public opposition to new oversight, combined with Speaker Johnson’s reluctance to rush legislation, has slowed progress amid midterm election timing. Multiple bills advanced in committee earlier in 2026, but none reached enactment, reflecting persistent partisan and industry hurdles. Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no comprehensive federal AI safety bill will pass before 2027, consistent with historical patterns of delayed consensus on emerging technology regulation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ET
Volume
$133,427End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure targeting catastrophic risks from frontier models have gained recent momentum, yet House leaders adjourned without floor action and remain divided over regulatory scope, liability standards, and preemption of state laws. President Trump’s public opposition to new oversight, combined with Speaker Johnson’s reluctance to rush legislation, has slowed progress amid midterm election timing. Multiple bills advanced in committee earlier in 2026, but none reached enactment, reflecting persistent partisan and industry hurdles. Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no comprehensive federal AI safety bill will pass before 2027, consistent with historical patterns of delayed consensus on emerging technology regulation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.
- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.
- Usage Restrictions: Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.
- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.
Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,427End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Nov 12, 2025, 5:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Bipartisan Senate negotiations on an AI safety measure targeting catastrophic risks from frontier models have gained recent momentum, yet House leaders adjourned without floor action and remain divided over regulatory scope, liability standards, and preemption of state laws. President Trump’s public opposition to new oversight, combined with Speaker Johnson’s reluctance to rush legislation, has slowed progress amid midterm election timing. Multiple bills advanced in committee earlier in 2026, but none reached enactment, reflecting persistent partisan and industry hurdles. Traders assign an 89.5% implied probability that no comprehensive federal AI safety bill will pass before 2027, consistent with historical patterns of delayed consensus on emerging technology regulation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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