Current forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a warm spell across southern England driven by high pressure, with daytime highs potentially reaching 30–34°C on August 13 and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling keeping overnight lows elevated. Ensemble model runs point to minimum temperatures most likely clustering between 17–20°C, consistent with recent trends of above-average warmth and limited cloud cover or wind that would otherwise enhance cooling. Trader sentiment reflected in the market prices places the highest implied probability on 19°C, followed closely by 20°C, as these align with the central tendency of short-range guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of slight cooling if a frontal boundary approaches. Upcoming model updates and observational data from the next 48 hours will be key for refining these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in London on August 13?
Lowest temperature in London on August 13?
19°C 39%
20°C 27%
18°C 17%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
14°C or below
1%
15°C
6%
16°C
4%
17°C
9%
18°C
17%
19°C
39%
20°C
27%
21°C
12%
22°C
2%
23°C
3%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 39%
20°C 27%
18°C 17%
21°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 13, 2026
14°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
15°C
$12 Vol.
6%
16°C
$34 Vol.
4%
17°C
$143 Vol.
9%
18°C
$233 Vol.
17%
19°C
$104 Vol.
39%
20°C
$1,282 Vol.
27%
21°C
$179 Vol.
12%
22°C
$60 Vol.
2%
23°C
$59 Vol.
3%
24°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a warm spell across southern England driven by high pressure, with daytime highs potentially reaching 30–34°C on August 13 and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling keeping overnight lows elevated. Ensemble model runs point to minimum temperatures most likely clustering between 17–20°C, consistent with recent trends of above-average warmth and limited cloud cover or wind that would otherwise enhance cooling. Trader sentiment reflected in the market prices places the highest implied probability on 19°C, followed closely by 20°C, as these align with the central tendency of short-range guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of slight cooling if a frontal boundary approaches. Upcoming model updates and observational data from the next 48 hours will be key for refining these ranges.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$2,130End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a warm spell across southern England driven by high pressure, with daytime highs potentially reaching 30–34°C on August 13 and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling keeping overnight lows elevated. Ensemble model runs point to minimum temperatures most likely clustering between 17–20°C, consistent with recent trends of above-average warmth and limited cloud cover or wind that would otherwise enhance cooling. Trader sentiment reflected in the market prices places the highest implied probability on 19°C, followed closely by 20°C, as these align with the central tendency of short-range guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of slight cooling if a frontal boundary approaches. Upcoming model updates and observational data from the next 48 hours will be key for refining these ranges.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,130End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from the Met Office and ECMWF indicate a warm spell across southern England driven by high pressure, with daytime highs potentially reaching 30–34°C on August 13 and reduced nocturnal radiative cooling keeping overnight lows elevated. Ensemble model runs point to minimum temperatures most likely clustering between 17–20°C, consistent with recent trends of above-average warmth and limited cloud cover or wind that would otherwise enhance cooling. Trader sentiment reflected in the market prices places the highest implied probability on 19°C, followed closely by 20°C, as these align with the central tendency of short-range guidance while accounting for typical model spread and the possibility of slight cooling if a frontal boundary approaches. Upcoming model updates and observational data from the next 48 hours will be key for refining these ranges.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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