Current ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou on September 15 point to a daily minimum near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 24.2 °C, driven by persistent subtropical monsoon flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Multiple model runs show overnight lows holding between 24–27 °C amid light variable winds and scattered showers, with no approaching cold front or clear-sky conditions that would allow temperatures to fall to 20 °C or below. Conversely, sustained cloudiness and moisture prevent the minimum from reaching 30 °C. Traders’ near-even split between the extreme bins likely reflects residual model spread in exact timing of any brief clearing, while the narrower 22–26 °C outcomes align more closely with observed guidance and historical analogs for mid-September. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours will further constrain resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 15?
30°C or higher 97%
20°C or below 96%
22°C 38%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
96%
21°C
17%
22°C
38%
23°C
20%
24°C
20%
25°C
21%
26°C
21%
27°C
21%
28°C
9%
29°C
17%
30°C or higher
97%
30°C or higher 97%
20°C or below 96%
22°C 38%
25°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
20°C or below
$10 Vol.
96%
21°C
$10 Vol.
17%
22°C
$10 Vol.
38%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$0 Vol.
20%
25°C
$0 Vol.
21%
26°C
$0 Vol.
21%
27°C
$0 Vol.
21%
28°C
$0 Vol.
9%
29°C
$10 Vol.
17%
30°C or higher
$10 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou on September 15 point to a daily minimum near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 24.2 °C, driven by persistent subtropical monsoon flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Multiple model runs show overnight lows holding between 24–27 °C amid light variable winds and scattered showers, with no approaching cold front or clear-sky conditions that would allow temperatures to fall to 20 °C or below. Conversely, sustained cloudiness and moisture prevent the minimum from reaching 30 °C. Traders’ near-even split between the extreme bins likely reflects residual model spread in exact timing of any brief clearing, while the narrower 22–26 °C outcomes align more closely with observed guidance and historical analogs for mid-September. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours will further constrain resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou on September 15 point to a daily minimum near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 24.2 °C, driven by persistent subtropical monsoon flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Multiple model runs show overnight lows holding between 24–27 °C amid light variable winds and scattered showers, with no approaching cold front or clear-sky conditions that would allow temperatures to fall to 20 °C or below. Conversely, sustained cloudiness and moisture prevent the minimum from reaching 30 °C. Traders’ near-even split between the extreme bins likely reflects residual model spread in exact timing of any brief clearing, while the narrower 22–26 °C outcomes align more closely with observed guidance and historical analogs for mid-September. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours will further constrain resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts for Guangzhou on September 15 point to a daily minimum near the 1991–2020 climatological average of 24.2 °C, driven by persistent subtropical monsoon flow, high humidity, and widespread cloud cover that limits nocturnal radiative cooling. Multiple model runs show overnight lows holding between 24–27 °C amid light variable winds and scattered showers, with no approaching cold front or clear-sky conditions that would allow temperatures to fall to 20 °C or below. Conversely, sustained cloudiness and moisture prevent the minimum from reaching 30 °C. Traders’ near-even split between the extreme bins likely reflects residual model spread in exact timing of any brief clearing, while the narrower 22–26 °C outcomes align more closely with observed guidance and historical analogs for mid-September. Updated short-range model runs over the next 24 hours will further constrain resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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