Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 13–14°C for Cape Town on September 15 under a persistent northwesterly flow, showers, and moderate pressure gradients that limit overnight radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely split between the extreme tails because small shifts in frontal timing or wind strength can push the minimum several degrees either way—colder if clearer skies allow greater heat loss, or milder if stronger onshore advection dominates. Ensemble spread in regional models reflects this sensitivity to exact cloud cover and wind speeds during the overnight period, with historical September variability in the region underscoring how quickly such conditions evolve. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 15?
9°C or below 93%
19°C or higher 93%
18°C 39%
12°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
9°C or below
93%
10°C
20%
11°C
20%
12°C
21%
13°C
21%
14°C
21%
15°C
20%
16°C
8%
17°C
1%
18°C
39%
19°C or higher
93%
9°C or below 93%
19°C or higher 93%
18°C 39%
12°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
9°C or below
$10 Vol.
93%
10°C
$0 Vol.
20%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
21%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
21%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$10 Vol.
8%
17°C
$10 Vol.
1%
18°C
$10 Vol.
39%
19°C or higher
$10 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 13–14°C for Cape Town on September 15 under a persistent northwesterly flow, showers, and moderate pressure gradients that limit overnight radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely split between the extreme tails because small shifts in frontal timing or wind strength can push the minimum several degrees either way—colder if clearer skies allow greater heat loss, or milder if stronger onshore advection dominates. Ensemble spread in regional models reflects this sensitivity to exact cloud cover and wind speeds during the overnight period, with historical September variability in the region underscoring how quickly such conditions evolve. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 13–14°C for Cape Town on September 15 under a persistent northwesterly flow, showers, and moderate pressure gradients that limit overnight radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely split between the extreme tails because small shifts in frontal timing or wind strength can push the minimum several degrees either way—colder if clearer skies allow greater heat loss, or milder if stronger onshore advection dominates. Ensemble spread in regional models reflects this sensitivity to exact cloud cover and wind speeds during the overnight period, with historical September variability in the region underscoring how quickly such conditions evolve. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$50End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 13–14°C for Cape Town on September 15 under a persistent northwesterly flow, showers, and moderate pressure gradients that limit overnight radiative cooling. Trader sentiment remains closely split between the extreme tails because small shifts in frontal timing or wind strength can push the minimum several degrees either way—colder if clearer skies allow greater heat loss, or milder if stronger onshore advection dominates. Ensemble spread in regional models reflects this sensitivity to exact cloud cover and wind speeds during the overnight period, with historical September variability in the region underscoring how quickly such conditions evolve. Updated model runs and local observations in the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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