Current ensemble forecasts from regional models point to a high of 26–28°C in Qingdao on September 15 under mostly clear skies and southerly flow, consistent with the seasonal transition from summer monsoon influence. Coastal moderation and modest diurnal heating limit upside potential, while any strengthening of the subtropical high or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward 30°C. The closely bunched market-implied odds around 27–32°C capture genuine short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local sea-breeze timing, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes given the absence of significant frontal activity in the latest guidance. Updated CMA and global model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 15?
31°C 44%
30°C 33%
32°C or higher 16%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
22°C or below
3%
23°C
3%
24°C
3%
25°C
3%
26°C
4%
27°C
8%
28°C
9%
29°C
9%
30°C
33%
31°C
44%
32°C or higher
16%
31°C 44%
30°C 33%
32°C or higher 16%
28°C 9%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Vol.
3%
23°C
$10 Vol.
3%
24°C
$10 Vol.
3%
25°C
$10 Vol.
3%
26°C
$10 Vol.
4%
27°C
$40 Vol.
8%
28°C
$20 Vol.
9%
29°C
$20 Vol.
9%
30°C
$32 Vol.
33%
31°C
$82 Vol.
44%
32°C or higher
$31 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from regional models point to a high of 26–28°C in Qingdao on September 15 under mostly clear skies and southerly flow, consistent with the seasonal transition from summer monsoon influence. Coastal moderation and modest diurnal heating limit upside potential, while any strengthening of the subtropical high or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward 30°C. The closely bunched market-implied odds around 27–32°C capture genuine short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local sea-breeze timing, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes given the absence of significant frontal activity in the latest guidance. Updated CMA and global model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$274End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from regional models point to a high of 26–28°C in Qingdao on September 15 under mostly clear skies and southerly flow, consistent with the seasonal transition from summer monsoon influence. Coastal moderation and modest diurnal heating limit upside potential, while any strengthening of the subtropical high or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward 30°C. The closely bunched market-implied odds around 27–32°C capture genuine short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local sea-breeze timing, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes given the absence of significant frontal activity in the latest guidance. Updated CMA and global model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$274End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:56 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from regional models point to a high of 26–28°C in Qingdao on September 15 under mostly clear skies and southerly flow, consistent with the seasonal transition from summer monsoon influence. Coastal moderation and modest diurnal heating limit upside potential, while any strengthening of the subtropical high or reduced cloud cover could push readings toward 30°C. The closely bunched market-implied odds around 27–32°C capture genuine short-range uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and local sea-breeze timing, with lower probabilities assigned to cooler outcomes given the absence of significant frontal activity in the latest guidance. Updated CMA and global model runs over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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