Current forecast models from sources including Météo-France and European ensembles project overnight minimum temperatures in Paris on September 15 around 16–18°C under high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover, favoring moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with the even 20% market-implied probabilities across 14–18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and subtle model differences in wind direction or residual moisture. Warmer-than-climatological conditions (historical September average low near 12°C) stem from persistent southerly flow earlier in the week, though a gradual cooling trend begins afterward with increased northwesterly influence. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria around the official minimum reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Paris on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Paris on September 15?
11°C or below 97%
16°C 21%
17°C 21%
12°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
97%
12°C
20%
13°C
11%
14°C
18%
15°C
20%
16°C
21%
17°C
21%
18°C
18%
19°C
12%
20°C
2%
21°C or higher
1%
11°C or below 97%
16°C 21%
17°C 21%
12°C 20%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
11°C or below
$10 Vol.
97%
12°C
$10 Vol.
20%
13°C
$0 Vol.
11%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
20%
16°C
$0 Vol.
21%
17°C
$0 Vol.
21%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
12%
20°C
$0 Vol.
2%
21°C or higher
$10 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including Météo-France and European ensembles project overnight minimum temperatures in Paris on September 15 around 16–18°C under high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover, favoring moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with the even 20% market-implied probabilities across 14–18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and subtle model differences in wind direction or residual moisture. Warmer-than-climatological conditions (historical September average low near 12°C) stem from persistent southerly flow earlier in the week, though a gradual cooling trend begins afterward with increased northwesterly influence. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria around the official minimum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast models from sources including Météo-France and European ensembles project overnight minimum temperatures in Paris on September 15 around 16–18°C under high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover, favoring moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with the even 20% market-implied probabilities across 14–18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and subtle model differences in wind direction or residual moisture. Warmer-than-climatological conditions (historical September average low near 12°C) stem from persistent southerly flow earlier in the week, though a gradual cooling trend begins afterward with increased northwesterly influence. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria around the official minimum reading.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpbResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast models from sources including Météo-France and European ensembles project overnight minimum temperatures in Paris on September 15 around 16–18°C under high pressure with light winds and limited cloud cover, favoring moderate radiative cooling. This range aligns with the even 20% market-implied probabilities across 14–18°C, reflecting uncertainty in exact boundary-layer mixing and subtle model differences in wind direction or residual moisture. Warmer-than-climatological conditions (historical September average low near 12°C) stem from persistent southerly flow earlier in the week, though a gradual cooling trend begins afterward with increased northwesterly influence. Updated model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely narrow resolution criteria around the official minimum reading.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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