Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C in Warsaw on September 13 under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's strong 62% implied probability for 20°C as the highest temperature, reflecting trader consensus on stable atmospheric conditions that limit daytime heating. Afternoon peaks are projected around 19–20°C, consistent with September climatology for the region, while overnight lows near 12–15°C reduce the chance of warmer outliers. Updated model runs show little divergence, supporting the tight clustering around 19–21°C outcomes and low odds for extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on September 13?
20°C 62%
19°C 22%
21°C 15%
18°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
5%
19°C
22%
20°C
62%
21°C
15%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C or higher
1%
20°C 62%
19°C 22%
21°C 15%
18°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
$67 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$137 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$174 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$786 Vol.
5%
19°C
$2,662 Vol.
22%
20°C
$2,325 Vol.
62%
21°C
$2,146 Vol.
15%
22°C
$857 Vol.
2%
23°C
$257 Vol.
1%
24°C or higher
$389 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C in Warsaw on September 13 under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's strong 62% implied probability for 20°C as the highest temperature, reflecting trader consensus on stable atmospheric conditions that limit daytime heating. Afternoon peaks are projected around 19–20°C, consistent with September climatology for the region, while overnight lows near 12–15°C reduce the chance of warmer outliers. Updated model runs show little divergence, supporting the tight clustering around 19–21°C outcomes and low odds for extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$9,933End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C in Warsaw on September 13 under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's strong 62% implied probability for 20°C as the highest temperature, reflecting trader consensus on stable atmospheric conditions that limit daytime heating. Afternoon peaks are projected around 19–20°C, consistent with September climatology for the region, while overnight lows near 12–15°C reduce the chance of warmer outliers. Updated model runs show little divergence, supporting the tight clustering around 19–21°C outcomes and low odds for extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,933End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from global models such as GFS indicate a daytime maximum near 20°C in Warsaw on September 13 under mostly cloudy to overcast skies with light southerly winds and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with the market's strong 62% implied probability for 20°C as the highest temperature, reflecting trader consensus on stable atmospheric conditions that limit daytime heating. Afternoon peaks are projected around 19–20°C, consistent with September climatology for the region, while overnight lows near 12–15°C reduce the chance of warmer outliers. Updated model runs show little divergence, supporting the tight clustering around 19–21°C outcomes and low odds for extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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