Current forecasts from multiple models, including NHC-adjacent and regional guidance, project a minimum temperature of 57°F for San Francisco on September 14 under mostly clear skies and light to moderate westerly onshore flow, consistent with typical September marine influence that suppresses overnight lows. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 55.9°F and recent analogs showing mid-50s readings. Trader consensus heavily favors the 56–57°F bin at 47% implied probability, while lower-probability tails for 47°F or below reflect potential for stronger cooling under variable winds, and the 66°F+ outcome at 34.5% accounts for upside model spread or localized warming. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, though final NWS updates on the morning of the 14th will refine exact resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 14?
56-57°F 54%
47°F or below 51%
66°F or higher 51%
58-59°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
51%
48-49°F
39%
50-51°F
39%
52-53°F
39%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
54%
58-59°F
40%
60-61°F
39%
62-63°F
39%
64-65°F
39%
66°F or higher
51%
56-57°F 54%
47°F or below 51%
66°F or higher 51%
58-59°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
47°F or below
$0 Vol.
51%
48-49°F
$0 Vol.
39%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
39%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
39%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$121 Vol.
54%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
40%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
39%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
39%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
39%
66°F or higher
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including NHC-adjacent and regional guidance, project a minimum temperature of 57°F for San Francisco on September 14 under mostly clear skies and light to moderate westerly onshore flow, consistent with typical September marine influence that suppresses overnight lows. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 55.9°F and recent analogs showing mid-50s readings. Trader consensus heavily favors the 56–57°F bin at 47% implied probability, while lower-probability tails for 47°F or below reflect potential for stronger cooling under variable winds, and the 66°F+ outcome at 34.5% accounts for upside model spread or localized warming. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, though final NWS updates on the morning of the 14th will refine exact resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$121End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models, including NHC-adjacent and regional guidance, project a minimum temperature of 57°F for San Francisco on September 14 under mostly clear skies and light to moderate westerly onshore flow, consistent with typical September marine influence that suppresses overnight lows. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 55.9°F and recent analogs showing mid-50s readings. Trader consensus heavily favors the 56–57°F bin at 47% implied probability, while lower-probability tails for 47°F or below reflect potential for stronger cooling under variable winds, and the 66°F+ outcome at 34.5% accounts for upside model spread or localized warming. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, though final NWS updates on the morning of the 14th will refine exact resolution thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$121End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models, including NHC-adjacent and regional guidance, project a minimum temperature of 57°F for San Francisco on September 14 under mostly clear skies and light to moderate westerly onshore flow, consistent with typical September marine influence that suppresses overnight lows. This aligns closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 55.9°F and recent analogs showing mid-50s readings. Trader consensus heavily favors the 56–57°F bin at 47% implied probability, while lower-probability tails for 47°F or below reflect potential for stronger cooling under variable winds, and the 66°F+ outcome at 34.5% accounts for upside model spread or localized warming. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 48 hours, though final NWS updates on the morning of the 14th will refine exact resolution thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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