Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local stations indicate San Francisco will see clear to mostly sunny skies with moderate northwest breezes on September 13, supporting overnight lows near the seasonal average of 56°F. This positions 58-59°F and 60-61°F as the closest bins under current consensus, as winds and marine layer effects create minor uncertainty in the precise minimum across microclimates or official reporting sites. Historical data show September 13 lows rarely dip below 52°F without unusual cooling, keeping deeper downside outcomes like 49°F or below at lower implied probabilities despite their presence in the market. Traders are weighing the latest model runs against typical diurnal cooling patterns ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on September 13?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on September 13?
49°F or below 91%
68°F or higher 72%
62-63°F 40%
60-61°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
49°F or below
91%
50-51°F
1%
52-53°F
18%
54-55°F
39%
56-57°F
22%
58-59°F
38%
60-61°F
40%
62-63°F
40%
64-65°F
8%
66-67°F
1%
68°F or higher
72%
49°F or below 91%
68°F or higher 72%
62-63°F 40%
60-61°F 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
49°F or below
$0 Vol.
91%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
1%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
18%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
39%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
22%
58-59°F
$34 Vol.
38%
60-61°F
$5 Vol.
40%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
40%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
8%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
1%
68°F or higher
$0 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local stations indicate San Francisco will see clear to mostly sunny skies with moderate northwest breezes on September 13, supporting overnight lows near the seasonal average of 56°F. This positions 58-59°F and 60-61°F as the closest bins under current consensus, as winds and marine layer effects create minor uncertainty in the precise minimum across microclimates or official reporting sites. Historical data show September 13 lows rarely dip below 52°F without unusual cooling, keeping deeper downside outcomes like 49°F or below at lower implied probabilities despite their presence in the market. Traders are weighing the latest model runs against typical diurnal cooling patterns ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volume
$39End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local stations indicate San Francisco will see clear to mostly sunny skies with moderate northwest breezes on September 13, supporting overnight lows near the seasonal average of 56°F. This positions 58-59°F and 60-61°F as the closest bins under current consensus, as winds and marine layer effects create minor uncertainty in the precise minimum across microclimates or official reporting sites. Historical data show September 13 lows rarely dip below 52°F without unusual cooling, keeping deeper downside outcomes like 49°F or below at lower implied probabilities despite their presence in the market. Traders are weighing the latest model runs against typical diurnal cooling patterns ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$39End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 7:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from NOAA-aligned models and local stations indicate San Francisco will see clear to mostly sunny skies with moderate northwest breezes on September 13, supporting overnight lows near the seasonal average of 56°F. This positions 58-59°F and 60-61°F as the closest bins under current consensus, as winds and marine layer effects create minor uncertainty in the precise minimum across microclimates or official reporting sites. Historical data show September 13 lows rarely dip below 52°F without unusual cooling, keeping deeper downside outcomes like 49°F or below at lower implied probabilities despite their presence in the market. Traders are weighing the latest model runs against typical diurnal cooling patterns ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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