**Forecast model spreads and clear-sky radiative cooling are the main drivers behind the tight market split between 26°C+ (46.5%) and 16°C or below (44.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble runs place the September 14 overnight low in Zhengzhou near 18°C, consistent with climatological norms of 16–18°C for mid-September, under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Limited cloud cover allows stronger surface cooling after sunset, while modest northerly or easterly flow could either enhance or limit advection of warmer air. Traders are pricing the genuine uncertainty in short-range model solutions—some runs dip to 16–17°C while others stay near 20°C—creating balanced implied probabilities around the 18°C outcome (30%). Updated model runs and any shift in cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours will likely move the market most.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Zhengzhou on September 14?
26°C or higher 95%
16°C or below 90%
17°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
90%
17°C
40%
18°C
30%
19°C
38%
20°C
38%
21°C
39%
22°C
39%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
17%
26°C or higher
95%
26°C or higher 95%
16°C or below 90%
17°C 40%
21°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
16°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
17°C
$0 Vol.
40%
18°C
$0 Vol.
30%
19°C
$0 Vol.
38%
20°C
$0 Vol.
38%
21°C
$0 Vol.
39%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
17%
24°C
$0 Vol.
17%
25°C
$0 Vol.
17%
26°C or higher
$0 Vol.
95%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model spreads and clear-sky radiative cooling are the main drivers behind the tight market split between 26°C+ (46.5%) and 16°C or below (44.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble runs place the September 14 overnight low in Zhengzhou near 18°C, consistent with climatological norms of 16–18°C for mid-September, under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Limited cloud cover allows stronger surface cooling after sunset, while modest northerly or easterly flow could either enhance or limit advection of warmer air. Traders are pricing the genuine uncertainty in short-range model solutions—some runs dip to 16–17°C while others stay near 20°C—creating balanced implied probabilities around the 18°C outcome (30%). Updated model runs and any shift in cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours will likely move the market most.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast model spreads and clear-sky radiative cooling are the main drivers behind the tight market split between 26°C+ (46.5%) and 16°C or below (44.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble runs place the September 14 overnight low in Zhengzhou near 18°C, consistent with climatological norms of 16–18°C for mid-September, under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Limited cloud cover allows stronger surface cooling after sunset, while modest northerly or easterly flow could either enhance or limit advection of warmer air. Traders are pricing the genuine uncertainty in short-range model solutions—some runs dip to 16–17°C while others stay near 20°C—creating balanced implied probabilities around the 18°C outcome (30%). Updated model runs and any shift in cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours will likely move the market most.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Zhengzhou Xinzheng International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhcc
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhccResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast model spreads and clear-sky radiative cooling are the main drivers behind the tight market split between 26°C+ (46.5%) and 16°C or below (44.5%).** Official guidance and ensemble runs place the September 14 overnight low in Zhengzhou near 18°C, consistent with climatological norms of 16–18°C for mid-September, under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions with light winds. Limited cloud cover allows stronger surface cooling after sunset, while modest northerly or easterly flow could either enhance or limit advection of warmer air. Traders are pricing the genuine uncertainty in short-range model solutions—some runs dip to 16–17°C while others stay near 20°C—creating balanced implied probabilities around the 18°C outcome (30%). Updated model runs and any shift in cloud or wind forecasts over the next 12–24 hours will likely move the market most.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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