Trader consensus assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 31°C daily high in Beijing on September 13 because official surface observations and hourly station data have already recorded this peak under clear skies and light northerly flow. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity enabled efficient solar insolation, allowing temperatures to climb steadily through the afternoon in line with mid-September climatology, where typical highs average near 27°C yet can reach the low 30s on sunny days. With no significant moisture advection or frontal passage indicated in current model guidance, shifts to other temperature thresholds remain unlikely before final verification by the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Beijing on September 13?
Highest temperature in Beijing on September 13?
31°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$67,054 Vol.
$67,054 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
31°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
$67,054 Vol.
$67,054 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
24°C or below
$73 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$339 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$661 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,080 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$8,526 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$14,155 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9,553 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$18,129 Vol.
100%
32°C
$8,793 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$4,752 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$991 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 31°C daily high in Beijing on September 13 because official surface observations and hourly station data have already recorded this peak under clear skies and light northerly flow. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity enabled efficient solar insolation, allowing temperatures to climb steadily through the afternoon in line with mid-September climatology, where typical highs average near 27°C yet can reach the low 30s on sunny days. With no significant moisture advection or frontal passage indicated in current model guidance, shifts to other temperature thresholds remain unlikely before final verification by the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$67,054End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 31°C daily high in Beijing on September 13 because official surface observations and hourly station data have already recorded this peak under clear skies and light northerly flow. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity enabled efficient solar insolation, allowing temperatures to climb steadily through the afternoon in line with mid-September climatology, where typical highs average near 27°C yet can reach the low 30s on sunny days. With no significant moisture advection or frontal passage indicated in current model guidance, shifts to other temperature thresholds remain unlikely before final verification by the China Meteorological Administration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67,054End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a near-certain 100% implied probability to a 31°C daily high in Beijing on September 13 because official surface observations and hourly station data have already recorded this peak under clear skies and light northerly flow. Persistent anticyclonic conditions with minimal cloud cover and low humidity enabled efficient solar insolation, allowing temperatures to climb steadily through the afternoon in line with mid-September climatology, where typical highs average near 27°C yet can reach the low 30s on sunny days. With no significant moisture advection or frontal passage indicated in current model guidance, shifts to other temperature thresholds remain unlikely before final verification by the China Meteorological Administration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions