Current forecasts from global models indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly flow on September 14, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 16–17°C. This aligns with the 13–17°C outcome cluster holding combined implied probabilities above 100% in the market, as calm conditions and dry air favor typical early-autumn lows close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 16.4°C. The 46% weighting on 19°C or higher reflects trader assessment of potential warmer boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread in minimum temperature guidance, while sub-12°C scenarios remain low-probability given the absence of cold-air advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Beijing on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 14?
19°C or higher 88%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
5%
10°C
9%
11°C
18%
12°C
40%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
22%
16°C
22%
17°C
24%
18°C
10%
19°C or higher
88%
19°C or higher 88%
12°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
9°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
9%
11°C
$0 Vol.
18%
12°C
$0 Vol.
40%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
22%
16°C
$0 Vol.
22%
17°C
$52 Vol.
24%
18°C
$42 Vol.
10%
19°C or higher
$0 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global models indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly flow on September 14, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 16–17°C. This aligns with the 13–17°C outcome cluster holding combined implied probabilities above 100% in the market, as calm conditions and dry air favor typical early-autumn lows close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 16.4°C. The 46% weighting on 19°C or higher reflects trader assessment of potential warmer boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread in minimum temperature guidance, while sub-12°C scenarios remain low-probability given the absence of cold-air advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$94End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from global models indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly flow on September 14, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 16–17°C. This aligns with the 13–17°C outcome cluster holding combined implied probabilities above 100% in the market, as calm conditions and dry air favor typical early-autumn lows close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 16.4°C. The 46% weighting on 19°C or higher reflects trader assessment of potential warmer boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread in minimum temperature guidance, while sub-12°C scenarios remain low-probability given the absence of cold-air advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$94End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from global models indicate Beijing will experience clear skies and light southerly flow on September 14, supporting overnight radiative cooling to a minimum near 16–17°C. This aligns with the 13–17°C outcome cluster holding combined implied probabilities above 100% in the market, as calm conditions and dry air favor typical early-autumn lows close to the 1991–2020 climatological average of 16.4°C. The 46% weighting on 19°C or higher reflects trader assessment of potential warmer boundary-layer mixing or slight model spread in minimum temperature guidance, while sub-12°C scenarios remain low-probability given the absence of cold-air advection. Updated model runs and official observations through the night will refine these ranges ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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