Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 99 °F for Austin on September 14 under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading 98-99 °F bin. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and limited cloud cover are sustaining elevated temperatures well above the 1991-2020 September average high of 91 °F. Small differences between the 98-99 °F and 100-101 °F outcomes hinge on minor variations in afternoon mixing depth, exact wind speed, and any late-day convective development that could briefly cap the peak. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term data points traders are watching.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Austin on September 14?
Highest temperature in Austin on September 14?
98-99°F 40%
100-101°F 32%
96-97°F 16%
94-95°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
89°F or below
<1%
90-91°F
1%
92-93°F
3%
94-95°F
10%
96-97°F
16%
98-99°F
40%
100-101°F
32%
102-103°F
8%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
1%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 40%
100-101°F 32%
96-97°F 16%
94-95°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
89°F or below
$117 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$0 Vol.
1%
92-93°F
$0 Vol.
3%
94-95°F
$0 Vol.
10%
96-97°F
$69 Vol.
16%
98-99°F
$205 Vol.
40%
100-101°F
$480 Vol.
32%
102-103°F
$576 Vol.
8%
104-105°F
$101 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$7 Vol.
1%
108°F or higher
$161 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 99 °F for Austin on September 14 under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading 98-99 °F bin. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and limited cloud cover are sustaining elevated temperatures well above the 1991-2020 September average high of 91 °F. Small differences between the 98-99 °F and 100-101 °F outcomes hinge on minor variations in afternoon mixing depth, exact wind speed, and any late-day convective development that could briefly cap the peak. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term data points traders are watching.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,717End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 99 °F for Austin on September 14 under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading 98-99 °F bin. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and limited cloud cover are sustaining elevated temperatures well above the 1991-2020 September average high of 91 °F. Small differences between the 98-99 °F and 100-101 °F outcomes hinge on minor variations in afternoon mixing depth, exact wind speed, and any late-day convective development that could briefly cap the peak. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term data points traders are watching.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,717End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a high near 99 °F for Austin on September 14 under mostly sunny skies and southerly flow, aligning with the market’s leading 98-99 °F bin. Persistent warm advection from the Gulf of Mexico, dew points in the low-to-mid 70s, and limited cloud cover are sustaining elevated temperatures well above the 1991-2020 September average high of 91 °F. Small differences between the 98-99 °F and 100-101 °F outcomes hinge on minor variations in afternoon mixing depth, exact wind speed, and any late-day convective development that could briefly cap the peak. Updated GFS and ECMWF runs plus the next NWS forecast discussion will be the key near-term data points traders are watching.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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