Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with southerly flow and high pressure supporting a maximum temperature of 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 14, placing these outcomes at the center of trader consensus. Model agreement on peak values near 30 °C, slightly above the late-summer climatological normal of 27.5 °C, reflects limited cloud cover and modest wind speeds that favor daytime heating before a frontal system arrives on the 15th. Updated guidance from official sources and private models shows little spread in expected maxima, reinforcing the market-implied odds while leaving room for minor revisions from overnight observations or boundary-layer adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
30°C 49%
29°C 26%
31°C 16%
28°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
5%
29°C
26%
30°C
49%
31°C
16%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
30°C 49%
29°C 26%
31°C 16%
28°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$1,450 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$358 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$290 Vol.
2%
28°C
$383 Vol.
5%
29°C
$1,441 Vol.
26%
30°C
$1,048 Vol.
49%
31°C
$2,463 Vol.
16%
32°C
$358 Vol.
5%
33°C
$247 Vol.
2%
34°C
$314 Vol.
<1%
35°C or higher
$673 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with southerly flow and high pressure supporting a maximum temperature of 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 14, placing these outcomes at the center of trader consensus. Model agreement on peak values near 30 °C, slightly above the late-summer climatological normal of 27.5 °C, reflects limited cloud cover and modest wind speeds that favor daytime heating before a frontal system arrives on the 15th. Updated guidance from official sources and private models shows little spread in expected maxima, reinforcing the market-implied odds while leaving room for minor revisions from overnight observations or boundary-layer adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$9,026End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with southerly flow and high pressure supporting a maximum temperature of 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 14, placing these outcomes at the center of trader consensus. Model agreement on peak values near 30 °C, slightly above the late-summer climatological normal of 27.5 °C, reflects limited cloud cover and modest wind speeds that favor daytime heating before a frontal system arrives on the 15th. Updated guidance from official sources and private models shows little spread in expected maxima, reinforcing the market-implied odds while leaving room for minor revisions from overnight observations or boundary-layer adjustments.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$9,026End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency and ensemble forecasts indicate partly cloudy conditions with southerly flow and high pressure supporting a maximum temperature of 30–31 °C for Tokyo on September 14, placing these outcomes at the center of trader consensus. Model agreement on peak values near 30 °C, slightly above the late-summer climatological normal of 27.5 °C, reflects limited cloud cover and modest wind speeds that favor daytime heating before a frontal system arrives on the 15th. Updated guidance from official sources and private models shows little spread in expected maxima, reinforcing the market-implied odds while leaving room for minor revisions from overnight observations or boundary-layer adjustments.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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