Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 near 24°C, driven by mild overnight conditions with southerly to southwesterly winds, high humidity near 80-90%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. Current evening temperatures around 25-26°C on September 13 support this range, with consensus lows of 23-24°C across multiple runs and limited model spread. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the region, where typical September minima hover near 19-22°C but recent warmth has kept values elevated. Trader consensus reflects this stability, with 24°C leading at 52% implied probability ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 14?
24°C 53%
23°C 27%
25°C 18%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
3%
21°C
4%
22°C
5%
23°C
27%
24°C
53%
25°C
18%
26°C
3%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C or higher
<1%
24°C 53%
23°C 27%
25°C 18%
22°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
$956 Vol.
3%
21°C
$436 Vol.
4%
22°C
$367 Vol.
5%
23°C
$954 Vol.
27%
24°C
$2,262 Vol.
53%
25°C
$1,226 Vol.
18%
26°C
$0 Vol.
3%
27°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$151 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$44 Vol.
<1%
30°C or higher
$256 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 near 24°C, driven by mild overnight conditions with southerly to southwesterly winds, high humidity near 80-90%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. Current evening temperatures around 25-26°C on September 13 support this range, with consensus lows of 23-24°C across multiple runs and limited model spread. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the region, where typical September minima hover near 19-22°C but recent warmth has kept values elevated. Trader consensus reflects this stability, with 24°C leading at 52% implied probability ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$6,803End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 near 24°C, driven by mild overnight conditions with southerly to southwesterly winds, high humidity near 80-90%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. Current evening temperatures around 25-26°C on September 13 support this range, with consensus lows of 23-24°C across multiple runs and limited model spread. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the region, where typical September minima hover near 19-22°C but recent warmth has kept values elevated. Trader consensus reflects this stability, with 24°C leading at 52% implied probability ahead of final observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,803End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles indicate a minimum temperature in Tokyo on September 14 near 24°C, driven by mild overnight conditions with southerly to southwesterly winds, high humidity near 80-90%, and partly cloudy skies that limit radiative cooling. Current evening temperatures around 25-26°C on September 13 support this range, with consensus lows of 23-24°C across multiple runs and limited model spread. These conditions align with late-summer climatology for the region, where typical September minima hover near 19-22°C but recent warmth has kept values elevated. Trader consensus reflects this stability, with 24°C leading at 52% implied probability ahead of final observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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