Recent short-term forecast model runs show high uncertainty in Busan’s nocturnal minimum for September 15, with ensemble spreads placing the overnight low near 21–22 °C yet leaving room for stronger northeasterly advection or clearer skies that could drop readings several degrees. Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 70 %, and variable cloud cover modulate radiative cooling rates, while the coastal setting limits extreme diurnal swings. Trader consensus splits between sub-15 °C and 25 °C-plus outcomes because small shifts in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage can alter the minimum by 4–6 °C, a range that encompasses both market leaders. Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Busan on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Busan on September 15?
15°C or below 98%
25°C or higher 97%
20°C 21%
21°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
15°C or below
98%
16°C
17%
17°C
20%
18°C
20%
19°C
20%
20°C
21%
21°C
21%
22°C
20%
23°C
20%
24°C
17%
25°C or higher
97%
15°C or below 98%
25°C or higher 97%
20°C 21%
21°C 21%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
15°C or below
$10 Vol.
98%
16°C
$10 Vol.
17%
17°C
$0 Vol.
20%
18°C
$0 Vol.
20%
19°C
$0 Vol.
20%
20°C
$0 Vol.
21%
21°C
$0 Vol.
21%
22°C
$0 Vol.
20%
23°C
$0 Vol.
20%
24°C
$10 Vol.
17%
25°C or higher
$10 Vol.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs show high uncertainty in Busan’s nocturnal minimum for September 15, with ensemble spreads placing the overnight low near 21–22 °C yet leaving room for stronger northeasterly advection or clearer skies that could drop readings several degrees. Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 70 %, and variable cloud cover modulate radiative cooling rates, while the coastal setting limits extreme diurnal swings. Trader consensus splits between sub-15 °C and 25 °C-plus outcomes because small shifts in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage can alter the minimum by 4–6 °C, a range that encompasses both market leaders. Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-term forecast model runs show high uncertainty in Busan’s nocturnal minimum for September 15, with ensemble spreads placing the overnight low near 21–22 °C yet leaving room for stronger northeasterly advection or clearer skies that could drop readings several degrees. Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 70 %, and variable cloud cover modulate radiative cooling rates, while the coastal setting limits extreme diurnal swings. Trader consensus splits between sub-15 °C and 25 °C-plus outcomes because small shifts in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage can alter the minimum by 4–6 °C, a range that encompasses both market leaders. Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$40End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rkpkResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-term forecast model runs show high uncertainty in Busan’s nocturnal minimum for September 15, with ensemble spreads placing the overnight low near 21–22 °C yet leaving room for stronger northeasterly advection or clearer skies that could drop readings several degrees. Persistent northeast flow, elevated humidity near 70 %, and variable cloud cover modulate radiative cooling rates, while the coastal setting limits extreme diurnal swings. Trader consensus splits between sub-15 °C and 25 °C-plus outcomes because small shifts in wind speed or timing of any weak frontal passage can alter the minimum by 4–6 °C, a range that encompasses both market leaders. Updated guidance from regional meteorological centers expected within 24 hours will likely narrow the implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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