Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources show mostly sunny to clear conditions over Qingdao on September 14, driven by a stable high-pressure system and light northerly to southeasterly winds that limit cloud cover and moisture. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with seasonal autumn cooling, supports daytime highs in the 26–28°C range, consistent with historical September averages around 26°C. Model consensus highlights minimal precipitation risk and moderate humidity, though slight variations in peak timing or urban heat effects could push readings toward 29°C. These atmospheric patterns explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds on cooler or hotter extremes reflecting tight forecast agreement ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 14?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 14?
29°C 53%
30°C 38%
28°C 6%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
6%
29°C
53%
30°C
38%
31°C
6%
32°C
2%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 53%
30°C 38%
28°C 6%
31°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
24°C or below
$363 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$277 Vol.
1%
26°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$276 Vol.
2%
28°C
$720 Vol.
6%
29°C
$1,778 Vol.
53%
30°C
$448 Vol.
38%
31°C
$782 Vol.
6%
32°C
$239 Vol.
2%
33°C
$241 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$560 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources show mostly sunny to clear conditions over Qingdao on September 14, driven by a stable high-pressure system and light northerly to southeasterly winds that limit cloud cover and moisture. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with seasonal autumn cooling, supports daytime highs in the 26–28°C range, consistent with historical September averages around 26°C. Model consensus highlights minimal precipitation risk and moderate humidity, though slight variations in peak timing or urban heat effects could push readings toward 29°C. These atmospheric patterns explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds on cooler or hotter extremes reflecting tight forecast agreement ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Volume
$5,683End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources show mostly sunny to clear conditions over Qingdao on September 14, driven by a stable high-pressure system and light northerly to southeasterly winds that limit cloud cover and moisture. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with seasonal autumn cooling, supports daytime highs in the 26–28°C range, consistent with historical September averages around 26°C. Model consensus highlights minimal precipitation risk and moderate humidity, though slight variations in peak timing or urban heat effects could push readings toward 29°C. These atmospheric patterns explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds on cooler or hotter extremes reflecting tight forecast agreement ahead of final observational data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,683End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:59 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple meteorological sources show mostly sunny to clear conditions over Qingdao on September 14, driven by a stable high-pressure system and light northerly to southeasterly winds that limit cloud cover and moisture. Coastal moderation from the Yellow Sea, combined with seasonal autumn cooling, supports daytime highs in the 26–28°C range, consistent with historical September averages around 26°C. Model consensus highlights minimal precipitation risk and moderate humidity, though slight variations in peak timing or urban heat effects could push readings toward 29°C. These atmospheric patterns explain the market's concentration of implied probability on 29°C and 30°C outcomes, with lower odds on cooler or hotter extremes reflecting tight forecast agreement ahead of final observational data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions