Forecast models from multiple sources converge on a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 14, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 75–85%, and widespread rain expected overnight that limits radiational cooling. Subtropical conditions and light northerly winds further moderate overnight lows, consistent with the seasonal average of about 24°C but elevated by current moisture. This consensus underpins the market's leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C outcomes, while lower or much higher thresholds reflect greater uncertainty around rainfall intensity or any brief clear spells. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of September 13 will refine the final reading ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on September 14?
20°C or below 53%
30°C or higher 53%
25°C 46%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
53%
21°C
13%
22°C
39%
23°C
33%
24°C
23%
25°C
46%
26°C
24%
27°C
39%
28°C
17%
29°C
14%
30°C or higher
53%
20°C or below 53%
30°C or higher 53%
25°C 46%
22°C 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
53%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
33%
24°C
$0 Vol.
23%
25°C
$12 Vol.
46%
26°C
$0 Vol.
24%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
17%
29°C
$0 Vol.
14%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple sources converge on a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 14, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 75–85%, and widespread rain expected overnight that limits radiational cooling. Subtropical conditions and light northerly winds further moderate overnight lows, consistent with the seasonal average of about 24°C but elevated by current moisture. This consensus underpins the market's leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C outcomes, while lower or much higher thresholds reflect greater uncertainty around rainfall intensity or any brief clear spells. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of September 13 will refine the final reading ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$12End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from multiple sources converge on a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 14, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 75–85%, and widespread rain expected overnight that limits radiational cooling. Subtropical conditions and light northerly winds further moderate overnight lows, consistent with the seasonal average of about 24°C but elevated by current moisture. This consensus underpins the market's leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C outcomes, while lower or much higher thresholds reflect greater uncertainty around rainfall intensity or any brief clear spells. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of September 13 will refine the final reading ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from multiple sources converge on a minimum temperature near 25–26°C for Guangzhou on September 14, driven by persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 75–85%, and widespread rain expected overnight that limits radiational cooling. Subtropical conditions and light northerly winds further moderate overnight lows, consistent with the seasonal average of about 24°C but elevated by current moisture. This consensus underpins the market's leading implied probabilities for 25°C and 26°C outcomes, while lower or much higher thresholds reflect greater uncertainty around rainfall intensity or any brief clear spells. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening of September 13 will refine the final reading ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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