**As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced just two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and zero hurricanes, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season.** Forecasters now assign a 75% probability to below-average activity, projecting 7–13 total named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, incorporating the early systems already observed. A persistent strong El Niño continues to drive enhanced upper-level wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region, inhibiting tropical cyclone organization and intensification. Colorado State University’s latest seasonal model similarly anticipates around four hurricanes. With the climatological peak still ahead in September, model consensus and current environmental conditions favor totals in the 1–6 range, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 1–3 and 4–6 bins while assigning low probability to extremes. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance, plus any late-August shear relaxation, will be the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 13%
0 6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
6%
1-3
40%
4-6
40%
7+
13%
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 13%
0 6%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
$79 Vol.
6%
1-3
$91 Vol.
40%
4-6
$316 Vol.
40%
7+
$98 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.**As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced just two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and zero hurricanes, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season.** Forecasters now assign a 75% probability to below-average activity, projecting 7–13 total named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, incorporating the early systems already observed. A persistent strong El Niño continues to drive enhanced upper-level wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region, inhibiting tropical cyclone organization and intensification. Colorado State University’s latest seasonal model similarly anticipates around four hurricanes. With the climatological peak still ahead in September, model consensus and current environmental conditions favor totals in the 1–6 range, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 1–3 and 4–6 bins while assigning low probability to extremes. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance, plus any late-August shear relaxation, will be the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Market Opened: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$584End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.**As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced just two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and zero hurricanes, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season.** Forecasters now assign a 75% probability to below-average activity, projecting 7–13 total named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, incorporating the early systems already observed. A persistent strong El Niño continues to drive enhanced upper-level wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region, inhibiting tropical cyclone organization and intensification. Colorado State University’s latest seasonal model similarly anticipates around four hurricanes. With the climatological peak still ahead in September, model consensus and current environmental conditions favor totals in the 1–6 range, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 1–3 and 4–6 bins while assigning low probability to extremes. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance, plus any late-August shear relaxation, will be the next key data points for traders.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Volume
$584End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**As of early August 2026, the Atlantic basin has produced just two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and zero hurricanes, aligning with NOAA’s updated outlook for a below-normal season.** Forecasters now assign a 75% probability to below-average activity, projecting 7–13 total named storms and only 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, incorporating the early systems already observed. A persistent strong El Niño continues to drive enhanced upper-level wind shear and drier mid-level air across the main development region, inhibiting tropical cyclone organization and intensification. Colorado State University’s latest seasonal model similarly anticipates around four hurricanes. With the climatological peak still ahead in September, model consensus and current environmental conditions favor totals in the 1–6 range, explaining why market-implied odds cluster tightly between the 1–3 and 4–6 bins while assigning low probability to extremes. Updated NOAA and CSU guidance, plus any late-August shear relaxation, will be the next key data points for traders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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