Current forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 33–34°C under sunny, stable high-pressure conditions typical of mid-August in central Spain, supporting the market's near-certain 35°C outcome as the official high. This aligns with seasonal climatology, where August averages hover near 32°C with occasional peaks driven by subtropical air masses, and recent model consensus shows minimal deviation. Real-time surface observations and ensemble runs reinforce limited upward potential today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized convective cooling could cap readings below 35°C, while stronger insolation or measurement at a warmer urban station might push the official maximum slightly higher, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the tight forecast spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 16?
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$146,910 Vol.
$146,910 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
Yes
36°C
No
37°C or higher
No
35°C 100.0%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
29°C <1%
$146,910 Vol.
$146,910 Vol.
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$2,253 Vol.
No
28°C
$1,872 Vol.
No
29°C
$1,184 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,177 Vol.
No
31°C
$15,110 Vol.
No
32°C
$10,440 Vol.
No
33°C
$22,204 Vol.
No
34°C
$42,694 Vol.
No
35°C
$25,350 Vol.
Yes
36°C
$18,349 Vol.
No
37°C or higher
$5,279 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 33–34°C under sunny, stable high-pressure conditions typical of mid-August in central Spain, supporting the market's near-certain 35°C outcome as the official high. This aligns with seasonal climatology, where August averages hover near 32°C with occasional peaks driven by subtropical air masses, and recent model consensus shows minimal deviation. Real-time surface observations and ensemble runs reinforce limited upward potential today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized convective cooling could cap readings below 35°C, while stronger insolation or measurement at a warmer urban station might push the official maximum slightly higher, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the tight forecast spread.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$146,910End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 33–34°C under sunny, stable high-pressure conditions typical of mid-August in central Spain, supporting the market's near-certain 35°C outcome as the official high. This aligns with seasonal climatology, where August averages hover near 32°C with occasional peaks driven by subtropical air masses, and recent model consensus shows minimal deviation. Real-time surface observations and ensemble runs reinforce limited upward potential today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized convective cooling could cap readings below 35°C, while stronger insolation or measurement at a warmer urban station might push the official maximum slightly higher, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the tight forecast spread.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$146,910End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Current forecasts from agencies including the Met Office and BBC Weather indicate Madrid will reach a daytime maximum of 33–34°C under sunny, stable high-pressure conditions typical of mid-August in central Spain, supporting the market's near-certain 35°C outcome as the official high. This aligns with seasonal climatology, where August averages hover near 32°C with occasional peaks driven by subtropical air masses, and recent model consensus shows minimal deviation. Real-time surface observations and ensemble runs reinforce limited upward potential today. A sudden shift in steering winds or localized convective cooling could cap readings below 35°C, while stronger insolation or measurement at a warmer urban station might push the official maximum slightly higher, though such adjustments remain low-probability given the tight forecast spread.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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