**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月4日圣保罗最低温度？
9月4日圣保罗最低温度？
15°C 100.0%
13°C或以下 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,475 交易量
$2,475 交易量
2026-09-04
13°C或以下
否
14°C
否
15°C
是
16°C
否
17°C
否
18°C
否
19°C
否
20°C
否
21°C
否
22°C
否
23°C或更高
否
15°C 100.0%
13°C或以下 1.0%
14°C 1.0%
16°C <1%
$2,475 交易量
$2,475 交易量
2026-09-04
13°C或以下
$70 交易量
否
14°C
$79 交易量
否
15°C
$535 交易量
是
16°C
$139 交易量
否
17°C
$308 交易量
否
18°C
$326 交易量
否
19°C
$104 交易量
否
20°C
$112 交易量
否
21°C
$267 交易量
否
22°C
$267 交易量
否
23°C或更高
$267 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET
交易量
$2,475结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.**
Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed.
The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,475结束日期
2026-09-04市场开放时间
Sep 2, 2026, 8:28 AM ET已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
**The market-implied odds strongly favor 15°C as the lowest temperature recorded in São Paulo on September 4, 2026, reflecting trader consensus anchored in official observational data.** Early September in the region typically features cooling from the approach of a frontal system, with overnight radiative cooling under clearer skies allowing minimums to dip into the mid-teens Celsius. Multiple meteorological sources, including forecasts from sites tracking Congonhas Airport and regional models, converged on a daily minimum of 15°C (or very close), with daytime highs near 26°C. This alignment between pre-event model runs, real-time station readings, and post-event verification created near-certainty once the 24-hour period closed. The 99% probability on 15°C indicates skin-in-the-game confidence that the official minimum—likely from INMET or airport networks—settled precisely at that threshold rather than 14°C or 16°C. Minor model spreads or microclimate variations between urban stations could theoretically shift the recorded low by 1°C, but consistent reports across sources made such outcomes improbable. Upcoming resolution hinges on the final official daily summary, with no major data revisions expected given the stability of observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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