The ongoing European heatwave, with daytime highs forecast to reach 30–40°C across northern France into the weekend, serves as the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–18°C for Paris’s overnight low on August 9. Recent model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France show minimal nocturnal cooling under persistent high pressure and light winds, pushing minimums several degrees above the long-term August average of 15–16°C while urban heat-island effects in central Paris further limit radiative losses. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on small forecast variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-arriving Atlantic moisture that could enhance or suppress the diurnal range. Updated guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the minimum settles near 17°C or edges toward 16°C or 18°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月9日巴黎最低气温？
8月9日巴黎最低气温？
17°C 31%
18°C 25%
16°C 19%
19°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
14°C或更低
5%
15°C
7%
16°C
19%
17°C
31%
18°C
25%
19°C
12%
20°C
6%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C或更高
<1%
17°C 31%
18°C 25%
16°C 19%
19°C 9%
最新
最新
2026-08-09
14°C或更低
$0 交易量
5%
15°C
$0 交易量
7%
16°C
$69 交易量
19%
17°C
$0 交易量
31%
18°C
$0 交易量
25%
19°C
$110 交易量
12%
20°C
$0 交易量
6%
21°C
$12 交易量
4%
22°C
$279 交易量
2%
23°C
$263 交易量
1%
24°C或更高
$12 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The ongoing European heatwave, with daytime highs forecast to reach 30–40°C across northern France into the weekend, serves as the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–18°C for Paris’s overnight low on August 9. Recent model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France show minimal nocturnal cooling under persistent high pressure and light winds, pushing minimums several degrees above the long-term August average of 15–16°C while urban heat-island effects in central Paris further limit radiative losses. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on small forecast variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-arriving Atlantic moisture that could enhance or suppress the diurnal range. Updated guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the minimum settles near 17°C or edges toward 16°C or 18°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$718结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The ongoing European heatwave, with daytime highs forecast to reach 30–40°C across northern France into the weekend, serves as the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–18°C for Paris’s overnight low on August 9. Recent model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France show minimal nocturnal cooling under persistent high pressure and light winds, pushing minimums several degrees above the long-term August average of 15–16°C while urban heat-island effects in central Paris further limit radiative losses. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on small forecast variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-arriving Atlantic moisture that could enhance or suppress the diurnal range. Updated guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the minimum settles near 17°C or edges toward 16°C or 18°C.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$718结束日期
2026-08-09市场开放时间
Aug 7, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThe ongoing European heatwave, with daytime highs forecast to reach 30–40°C across northern France into the weekend, serves as the dominant driver keeping implied probabilities tightly clustered around 16–18°C for Paris’s overnight low on August 9. Recent model runs from ECMWF and Météo-France show minimal nocturnal cooling under persistent high pressure and light winds, pushing minimums several degrees above the long-term August average of 15–16°C while urban heat-island effects in central Paris further limit radiative losses. Subtle differences among leading outcomes hinge on small forecast variations in cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and any late-arriving Atlantic moisture that could enhance or suppress the diurnal range. Updated guidance expected over the next 24–48 hours will clarify whether the minimum settles near 17°C or edges toward 16°C or 18°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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