Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月5日深圳气温最高？
9月5日深圳气温最高？
31°C 99.4%
32°C <1%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
$38,848 交易量
$38,848 交易量
2026-09-05
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
99%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
31°C 99.4%
32°C <1%
23°C或以下 <1%
24°C <1%
$38,848 交易量
$38,848 交易量
2026-09-05
23°C或以下
$541 交易量
<1%
24°C
$305 交易量
<1%
25°C
$382 交易量
<1%
26°C
$401 交易量
<1%
27°C
$1,080 交易量
<1%
28°C
$1,548 交易量
<1%
29°C
$1,483 交易量
<1%
30°C
$9,426 交易量
<1%
31°C
$8,899 交易量
99%
32°C
$6,978 交易量
<1%
33°C或以上
$7,879 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$38,848结束日期
2026-09-05市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$38,848结束日期
2026-09-05市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 12:57 AM ETForecast consensus from multiple meteorological models and real-time observations positions Shenzhen's September 5 maximum near 31°C, driving the 99.4% market-implied probability. Current conditions feature partly cloudy skies, light southerly winds, and dew points around 24–26°C, supporting daytime heating to this level without strong convective cooling or excessive cloud cover suppressing temperatures. Historical September averages near 31°C and stable steering patterns reinforce trader alignment. A realistic challenge could arise from heavier afternoon thunderstorms or revised official station readings deviating by 1–2°C due to microclimate effects or measurement timing, though model agreement limits such shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题