**Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting model runs position an 18°C high as the most likely outcome for Moscow on September 5, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability.** Persistent cloudy skies, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing daytime heating and keeping temperatures within a narrow 16–18°C band, consistent with multiple hourly updates showing afternoon peaks near 18°C. This aligns closely with the long-term September 5 average high of roughly 18.5°C, while cooler-than-normal surface conditions and southerly-to-westerly flow further limit any upside potential. The 17°C (20.5%) and 19°C (13.5%) options capture the remaining uncertainty in exact peak readings amid variable precipitation. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and real-time observations heavily, as resolution depends on verified maximum temperature measurements for the calendar day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于9月5日莫斯科最高气温？
9月5日莫斯科最高气温？
18°C 68%
19°C 23%
20°C 12%
17°C 4%
$21,619 交易量
$21,619 交易量
2026-09-05
13°C或以下
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
68%
19°C
23%
20°C
12%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C或更高
<1%
18°C 68%
19°C 23%
20°C 12%
17°C 4%
$21,619 交易量
$21,619 交易量
2026-09-05
13°C或以下
$509 交易量
<1%
14°C
$1,829 交易量
<1%
15°C
$3,344 交易量
<1%
16°C
$6,500 交易量
1%
17°C
$1,370 交易量
4%
18°C
$3,122 交易量
68%
19°C
$2,880 交易量
23%
20°C
$790 交易量
12%
21°C
$509 交易量
1%
22°C
$461 交易量
<1%
23°C或更高
$306 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting model runs position an 18°C high as the most likely outcome for Moscow on September 5, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability.** Persistent cloudy skies, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing daytime heating and keeping temperatures within a narrow 16–18°C band, consistent with multiple hourly updates showing afternoon peaks near 18°C. This aligns closely with the long-term September 5 average high of roughly 18.5°C, while cooler-than-normal surface conditions and southerly-to-westerly flow further limit any upside potential. The 17°C (20.5%) and 19°C (13.5%) options capture the remaining uncertainty in exact peak readings amid variable precipitation. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and real-time observations heavily, as resolution depends on verified maximum temperature measurements for the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$21,619结束日期
2026-09-05市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting model runs position an 18°C high as the most likely outcome for Moscow on September 5, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability.** Persistent cloudy skies, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing daytime heating and keeping temperatures within a narrow 16–18°C band, consistent with multiple hourly updates showing afternoon peaks near 18°C. This aligns closely with the long-term September 5 average high of roughly 18.5°C, while cooler-than-normal surface conditions and southerly-to-westerly flow further limit any upside potential. The 17°C (20.5%) and 19°C (13.5%) options capture the remaining uncertainty in exact peak readings amid variable precipitation. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and real-time observations heavily, as resolution depends on verified maximum temperature measurements for the calendar day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$21,619结束日期
2026-09-05市场开放时间
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET**Official forecasts from Russia's Hydrometeorological Center and supporting model runs position an 18°C high as the most likely outcome for Moscow on September 5, 2026, driving the 62.5% market-implied probability.** Persistent cloudy skies, widespread rain, and thunderstorms are suppressing daytime heating and keeping temperatures within a narrow 16–18°C band, consistent with multiple hourly updates showing afternoon peaks near 18°C. This aligns closely with the long-term September 5 average high of roughly 18.5°C, while cooler-than-normal surface conditions and southerly-to-westerly flow further limit any upside potential. The 17°C (20.5%) and 19°C (13.5%) options capture the remaining uncertainty in exact peak readings amid variable precipitation. Traders are weighting the latest official guidance and real-time observations heavily, as resolution depends on verified maximum temperature measurements for the calendar day.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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