Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月15日马德里气温最高？
8月15日马德里气温最高？
33°C 37%
34°C 30%
35°C 15%
32°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
30°C or below
1%
31°C
3%
32°C
11%
33°C
37%
34°C
30%
35°C
15%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
33°C 37%
34°C 30%
35°C 15%
32°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
30°C or below
$14 交易量
1%
31°C
$10 交易量
3%
32°C
$336 交易量
11%
33°C
$184 交易量
37%
34°C
$370 交易量
30%
35°C
$114 交易量
15%
36°C
$290 交易量
8%
37°C
$20 交易量
2%
38°C
$43 交易量
<1%
39°C
$20 交易量
<1%
40°C or higher
$84 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
交易量
$1,485结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,485结束日期
2026-08-15市场开放时间
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETCurrent short-range forecasts from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS show Madrid's August 15 maximum likely peaking near 33–34°C under persistent high pressure, clear skies, and strong daytime insolation typical of the region's continental climate. Recent model runs suggest modest cooling from prior early-August heat, with light northerly flow potentially limiting further warming, though urban heat island effects and low humidity could support brief spikes. Trader consensus clusters tightly around these values because ensemble spreads remain narrow just 48 hours out, while higher outcomes would require unexpected subsidence strengthening or southerly advection. AEMET updates and next model cycles could refine landfall timing of any Atlantic trough.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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