Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate that overnight radiative cooling in the Seoul-Incheon region will be limited by persistent high humidity and light winds associated with a lingering warm air mass, positioning the lowest temperature (recorded 3–9 a.m. local time at the Incheon station) near 25–26 °C. Late-August climatology shows average overnight lows of 23–25 °C, with recent days featuring minima around 24–25 °C under similar synoptic patterns; any increase in cloud cover or precipitation overnight could suppress cooling and favor the 26 °C outcome that currently holds 55 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 25 °C and 26 °C heavily because small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can alter the final minimum by 1 °C, while probabilities drop sharply below 24 °C or above 27 °C absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any revised model runs ahead of sunset on August 25 will likely drive further adjustments in these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月26日首爾（仁川）最低溫度？
8月26日首爾（仁川）最低溫度？
26°C 55%
25°C 34%
24°C 8%
27°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
21°C或以下
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
8%
25°C
34%
26°C
55%
27°C
6%
28°C
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C或更高
1%
26°C 55%
25°C 34%
24°C 8%
27°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-26
21°C或以下
$199 交易量
<1%
22°C
$79 交易量
1%
23°C
$120 交易量
3%
24°C
$202 交易量
8%
25°C
$96 交易量
34%
26°C
$1,974 交易量
55%
27°C
$63 交易量
6%
28°C
$112 交易量
<1%
29°C
$100 交易量
1%
30°C
$100 交易量
1%
31°C或更高
$100 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate that overnight radiative cooling in the Seoul-Incheon region will be limited by persistent high humidity and light winds associated with a lingering warm air mass, positioning the lowest temperature (recorded 3–9 a.m. local time at the Incheon station) near 25–26 °C. Late-August climatology shows average overnight lows of 23–25 °C, with recent days featuring minima around 24–25 °C under similar synoptic patterns; any increase in cloud cover or precipitation overnight could suppress cooling and favor the 26 °C outcome that currently holds 55 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 25 °C and 26 °C heavily because small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can alter the final minimum by 1 °C, while probabilities drop sharply below 24 °C or above 27 °C absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any revised model runs ahead of sunset on August 25 will likely drive further adjustments in these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$3,147結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate that overnight radiative cooling in the Seoul-Incheon region will be limited by persistent high humidity and light winds associated with a lingering warm air mass, positioning the lowest temperature (recorded 3–9 a.m. local time at the Incheon station) near 25–26 °C. Late-August climatology shows average overnight lows of 23–25 °C, with recent days featuring minima around 24–25 °C under similar synoptic patterns; any increase in cloud cover or precipitation overnight could suppress cooling and favor the 26 °C outcome that currently holds 55 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 25 °C and 26 °C heavily because small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can alter the final minimum by 1 °C, while probabilities drop sharply below 24 °C or above 27 °C absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any revised model runs ahead of sunset on August 25 will likely drive further adjustments in these implied odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,147結束日期
2026-08-26市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 12:29 AM ETRecent Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate that overnight radiative cooling in the Seoul-Incheon region will be limited by persistent high humidity and light winds associated with a lingering warm air mass, positioning the lowest temperature (recorded 3–9 a.m. local time at the Incheon station) near 25–26 °C. Late-August climatology shows average overnight lows of 23–25 °C, with recent days featuring minima around 24–25 °C under similar synoptic patterns; any increase in cloud cover or precipitation overnight could suppress cooling and favor the 26 °C outcome that currently holds 55 % market-implied probability. Traders appear to weigh the narrow spread between 25 °C and 26 °C heavily because small shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind speed can alter the final minimum by 1 °C, while probabilities drop sharply below 24 °C or above 27 °C absent an unexpected frontal passage. Updated KMA short-range guidance and any revised model runs ahead of sunset on August 25 will likely drive further adjustments in these implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions