Official Met Office guidance points to a minimum near 19°C for London on August 4 under continued high pressure, with daytime maxima around 28°C. Traders have priced 19–21°C outcomes most heavily because ensemble forecasts show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling rates. Clear or partly cloudy skies would allow greater heat loss, while any increase in cloud cover or light winds would keep readings closer to 20–21°C; the urban heat island further buffers extremes. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts likely to shift implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日倫敦的最低溫度？
8月4日倫敦的最低溫度？
20°C 45%
21°C 35%
19°C 19%
22°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
15°C or below
3%
16°C
2%
17°C
6%
18°C
8%
19°C
19%
20°C
45%
21°C
35%
22°C
10%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
21°C 35%
19°C 19%
22°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
15°C or below
$20 交易量
3%
16°C
$11 交易量
2%
17°C
$0 交易量
6%
18°C
$0 交易量
8%
19°C
$6 交易量
19%
20°C
$2 交易量
45%
21°C
$0 交易量
35%
22°C
$1 交易量
10%
23°C
$45 交易量
1%
24°C
$10 交易量
1%
25°C or higher
$20 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Met Office guidance points to a minimum near 19°C for London on August 4 under continued high pressure, with daytime maxima around 28°C. Traders have priced 19–21°C outcomes most heavily because ensemble forecasts show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling rates. Clear or partly cloudy skies would allow greater heat loss, while any increase in cloud cover or light winds would keep readings closer to 20–21°C; the urban heat island further buffers extremes. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts likely to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$115結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official Met Office guidance points to a minimum near 19°C for London on August 4 under continued high pressure, with daytime maxima around 28°C. Traders have priced 19–21°C outcomes most heavily because ensemble forecasts show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling rates. Clear or partly cloudy skies would allow greater heat loss, while any increase in cloud cover or light winds would keep readings closer to 20–21°C; the urban heat island further buffers extremes. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts likely to shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$115結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETOfficial Met Office guidance points to a minimum near 19°C for London on August 4 under continued high pressure, with daytime maxima around 28°C. Traders have priced 19–21°C outcomes most heavily because ensemble forecasts show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling rates. Clear or partly cloudy skies would allow greater heat loss, while any increase in cloud cover or light winds would keep readings closer to 20–21°C; the urban heat island further buffers extremes. Updated model runs and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts likely to shift implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions