Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency position 33–35 °C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 2 maximum, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities (34 °C at 40 %, 35 °C at 24.5 %, 33 °C at 23.5 %). August climatology features peak insolation and urban heat-island amplification that routinely pushes daytime highs 2–4 °C above the 31–32 °C seasonal normal, while recent model consensus shows modest cooling from expected showers and increased cloud cover that limits radiative heating. These conditions reduce the odds of extremes above 36 °C and support the narrow distribution traders currently price, with updated JMA and ensemble runs due overnight offering the next key data points for any shift in sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月2日東京氣溫最高？
8月2日東京氣溫最高？
34°C 40%
35°C 25%
33°C 24%
36°C 8%
最新
$11,755 交易量
最新
$11,755 交易量
2026-08-02
30°C or below
<1%
31°C
2%
32°C
5%
33°C
24%
34°C
40%
35°C
25%
36°C
8%
37°C
2%
38°C
1%
39°C
<1%
40°C or higher
<1%
34°C 40%
35°C 25%
33°C 24%
36°C 8%
最新
$11,755 交易量
最新
$11,755 交易量
2026-08-02
30°C or below
$1,790 交易量
<1%
31°C
$1,635 交易量
2%
32°C
$377 交易量
5%
33°C
$1,771 交易量
24%
34°C
$1,005 交易量
40%
35°C
$881 交易量
25%
36°C
$731 交易量
8%
37°C
$1,100 交易量
2%
38°C
$1,490 交易量
1%
39°C
$522 交易量
<1%
40°C or higher
$862 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency position 33–35 °C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 2 maximum, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities (34 °C at 40 %, 35 °C at 24.5 %, 33 °C at 23.5 %). August climatology features peak insolation and urban heat-island amplification that routinely pushes daytime highs 2–4 °C above the 31–32 °C seasonal normal, while recent model consensus shows modest cooling from expected showers and increased cloud cover that limits radiative heating. These conditions reduce the odds of extremes above 36 °C and support the narrow distribution traders currently price, with updated JMA and ensemble runs due overnight offering the next key data points for any shift in sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$11,755結束日期
2026-08-02市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency position 33–35 °C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 2 maximum, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities (34 °C at 40 %, 35 °C at 24.5 %, 33 °C at 23.5 %). August climatology features peak insolation and urban heat-island amplification that routinely pushes daytime highs 2–4 °C above the 31–32 °C seasonal normal, while recent model consensus shows modest cooling from expected showers and increased cloud cover that limits radiative heating. These conditions reduce the odds of extremes above 36 °C and support the narrow distribution traders currently price, with updated JMA and ensemble runs due overnight offering the next key data points for any shift in sentiment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$11,755結束日期
2026-08-02市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 12:02 AM ETLatest numerical weather prediction models from the Japan Meteorological Agency position 33–35 °C as the most probable range for Tokyo’s August 2 maximum, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities (34 °C at 40 %, 35 °C at 24.5 %, 33 °C at 23.5 %). August climatology features peak insolation and urban heat-island amplification that routinely pushes daytime highs 2–4 °C above the 31–32 °C seasonal normal, while recent model consensus shows modest cooling from expected showers and increased cloud cover that limits radiative heating. These conditions reduce the odds of extremes above 36 °C and support the narrow distribution traders currently price, with updated JMA and ensemble runs due overnight offering the next key data points for any shift in sentiment.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions