Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
8月4日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
30°C 35%
31°C 27%
29°C 19%
28°C或以下 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
28°C或以下
16%
29°C
19%
30°C
35%
31°C
27%
32°C
7%
33°C
2%
34°C
1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C或以上
<1%
30°C 35%
31°C 27%
29°C 19%
28°C或以下 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
28°C或以下
$1,253 交易量
16%
29°C
$146 交易量
19%
30°C
$222 交易量
35%
31°C
$583 交易量
27%
32°C
$166 交易量
7%
33°C
$56 交易量
2%
34°C
$179 交易量
1%
35°C
$153 交易量
<1%
36°C
$143 交易量
<1%
37°C
$133 交易量
<1%
38°C或以上
$133 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
交易量
$3,167結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,167結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:05 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) place Amsterdam's maximum temperature on August 4 near 30–31°C, driving the tight trader consensus around those outcomes. A strengthening high-pressure ridge over western Europe, combined with light southerly flow and limited cloud cover, supports daytime heating, while model spread in boundary-layer moisture and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the observed 45–55% implied probability split. Historical August baselines average 23–25°C, underscoring the anomalous warmth already priced in. KNMI updates and the next ECMWF run expected within 24 hours will likely refine the distribution ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions