**Recent official forecasts position 25°C as the leading outcome for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 4.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance projects a daily minimum of 25°C and maximum of 30°C under a regime of showers and high humidity, aligning closely with the market’s 58.5% implied probability for 25°C and 27.5% for 26°C. Summer monsoon conditions over the South China Sea, combined with lingering low-pressure troughs, favor widespread cloud cover and scattered rainfall that suppress daytime heating and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows early-August overnight lows typically range from 25–28°C, and current model consensus supports values near the lower end of that band due to enhanced moisture and reduced insolation. No major tropical cyclone threats or abrupt shifts in steering flow appear imminent in the next 48 hours, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25–26°C. Traders are therefore weighting the official forecast heavily while assigning modest probabilities to slight deviations from model spread or localized urban heat-island effects. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs in the coming day will provide the next high-impact data points for market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日香港最低溫度？
8月4日香港最低溫度？
25°C 65%
26°C 24%
21°C或以下 12%
22°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
21°C或以下
12%
22°C
12%
23°C
9%
24°C
8%
25°C
65%
26°C
24%
27°C
6%
28°C
8%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C或以上
<1%
25°C 65%
26°C 24%
21°C或以下 12%
22°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
21°C或以下
$42 交易量
12%
22°C
$42 交易量
12%
23°C
$0 交易量
9%
24°C
$0 交易量
8%
25°C
$683 交易量
65%
26°C
$0 交易量
24%
27°C
$0 交易量
6%
28°C
$10 交易量
8%
29°C
$32 交易量
1%
30°C
$0 交易量
<1%
31°C或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent official forecasts position 25°C as the leading outcome for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 4.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance projects a daily minimum of 25°C and maximum of 30°C under a regime of showers and high humidity, aligning closely with the market’s 58.5% implied probability for 25°C and 27.5% for 26°C.
Summer monsoon conditions over the South China Sea, combined with lingering low-pressure troughs, favor widespread cloud cover and scattered rainfall that suppress daytime heating and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows early-August overnight lows typically range from 25–28°C, and current model consensus supports values near the lower end of that band due to enhanced moisture and reduced insolation.
No major tropical cyclone threats or abrupt shifts in steering flow appear imminent in the next 48 hours, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25–26°C. Traders are therefore weighting the official forecast heavily while assigning modest probabilities to slight deviations from model spread or localized urban heat-island effects. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs in the coming day will provide the next high-impact data points for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$808結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.**Recent official forecasts position 25°C as the leading outcome for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 4.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance projects a daily minimum of 25°C and maximum of 30°C under a regime of showers and high humidity, aligning closely with the market’s 58.5% implied probability for 25°C and 27.5% for 26°C.
Summer monsoon conditions over the South China Sea, combined with lingering low-pressure troughs, favor widespread cloud cover and scattered rainfall that suppress daytime heating and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows early-August overnight lows typically range from 25–28°C, and current model consensus supports values near the lower end of that band due to enhanced moisture and reduced insolation.
No major tropical cyclone threats or abrupt shifts in steering flow appear imminent in the next 48 hours, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25–26°C. Traders are therefore weighting the official forecast heavily while assigning modest probabilities to slight deviations from model spread or localized urban heat-island effects. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs in the coming day will provide the next high-impact data points for market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$808結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent official forecasts position 25°C as the leading outcome for Hong Kong’s minimum temperature on August 4.** The Hong Kong Observatory’s latest guidance projects a daily minimum of 25°C and maximum of 30°C under a regime of showers and high humidity, aligning closely with the market’s 58.5% implied probability for 25°C and 27.5% for 26°C. Summer monsoon conditions over the South China Sea, combined with lingering low-pressure troughs, favor widespread cloud cover and scattered rainfall that suppress daytime heating and limit nighttime radiative cooling. Historical climatology shows early-August overnight lows typically range from 25–28°C, and current model consensus supports values near the lower end of that band due to enhanced moisture and reduced insolation. No major tropical cyclone threats or abrupt shifts in steering flow appear imminent in the next 48 hours, keeping the distribution tightly centered on 25–26°C. Traders are therefore weighting the official forecast heavily while assigning modest probabilities to slight deviations from model spread or localized urban heat-island effects. Updated HKO guidance and regional model runs in the coming day will provide the next high-impact data points for market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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