Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote edge near 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, but the Coalition Avenir Québec has closed the gap sharply in the latest Synopsis survey, reaching statistical parity at 27 percent. This rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ regional strength, has produced highly competitive ridings across francophone areas. Seat models therefore project the PQ in a wide band around 45-50 seats, with limited prospects for a majority near 64. The resulting volatility—driven by undecided voters, regional swings, and vote-splitting among non-sovereigntist parties—keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered in the sub-55 seat ranges while leaving room for late-campaign shifts to alter the final distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว<50 29%
50-54 28%
55-59 12%
70-74 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 5, 2026
<50
29%
50-54
28%
55-59
16%
60-64
8%
65-69
11%
70-74
11%
75-79
3%
80+
4%
<50 29%
50-54 28%
55-59 12%
70-74 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 5, 2026
<50
$960 ปริมาณ
29%
50-54
$900 ปริมาณ
28%
55-59
$423 ปริมาณ
16%
60-64
$775 ปริมาณ
8%
65-69
$2,484 ปริมาณ
11%
70-74
$1,706 ปริมาณ
11%
75-79
$953 ปริมาณ
3%
80+
$839 ปริมาณ
4%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote edge near 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, but the Coalition Avenir Québec has closed the gap sharply in the latest Synopsis survey, reaching statistical parity at 27 percent. This rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ regional strength, has produced highly competitive ridings across francophone areas. Seat models therefore project the PQ in a wide band around 45-50 seats, with limited prospects for a majority near 64. The resulting volatility—driven by undecided voters, regional swings, and vote-splitting among non-sovereigntist parties—keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered in the sub-55 seat ranges while leaving room for late-campaign shifts to alter the final distribution.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,040วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote edge near 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, but the Coalition Avenir Québec has closed the gap sharply in the latest Synopsis survey, reaching statistical parity at 27 percent. This rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ regional strength, has produced highly competitive ridings across francophone areas. Seat models therefore project the PQ in a wide band around 45-50 seats, with limited prospects for a majority near 64. The resulting volatility—driven by undecided voters, regional swings, and vote-splitting among non-sovereigntist parties—keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered in the sub-55 seat ranges while leaving room for late-campaign shifts to alter the final distribution.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Parti Québécois (PQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$9,040วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the Parti Québécois holding a narrow popular-vote edge near 28-30 percent ahead of the October 5 election, but the Coalition Avenir Québec has closed the gap sharply in the latest Synopsis survey, reaching statistical parity at 27 percent. This rebound under new leader Christine Fréchette, combined with the Liberals’ concentration in Montreal and the Conservatives’ regional strength, has produced highly competitive ridings across francophone areas. Seat models therefore project the PQ in a wide band around 45-50 seats, with limited prospects for a majority near 64. The resulting volatility—driven by undecided voters, regional swings, and vote-splitting among non-sovereigntist parties—keeps trader probabilities tightly clustered in the sub-55 seat ranges while leaving room for late-campaign shifts to alter the final distribution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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