Recent opinion polls show Sweden’s centre-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats, holding a clear lead of roughly 7–10 points over the incumbent right-wing coalition ahead of the September 13 general election. This consistent advantage, confirmed in multiple surveys through mid-August, has driven trader consensus that Magdalena Andersson is the overwhelming favorite to return as prime minister. The governing bloc’s position has been further pressured by the Liberals polling below the 4% threshold and by limited momentum for bloc partners. While the gap has narrowed slightly from earlier summer readings, the structural advantage for the red-green parties and the short time remaining before voters decide have kept Andersson’s implied probability above 85%. Other listed candidates remain marginal because current seat projections make alternative government formations unlikely.