Jess Wilson, the Liberal Opposition Leader since late 2025, leads the market at 64.5% as traders price in consistent Coalition polling advantages ahead of the November 28 state election. Recent DemosAU surveys show the Liberal-National Coalition ahead of Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred, with Wilson preferred as premier over Ben Carroll by 43-34. Carroll assumed the premiership in late July after Jacinta Allan resigned under caucus pressure amid weak primary votes and internal factional maneuvering, yet Labor support has continued to erode into the mid-20s while One Nation polls strongly in regional areas without shifting the two-party outcome. Wilson has driven momentum through targeted releases on justice reforms, bail changes, housing supply, a 10-year economic plan, and a first-100-days agenda focused on policing and cost-of-living measures. Carroll’s early moves, including a royal commission into the construction sector, have not reversed the trend. Lower-priced Labor figures such as Gabrielle Williams and Steve Dimopoulos reflect limited prospects of closing the gap before election day, while minor candidates including Warren Pickering trail further behind.