**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in lower house seats at Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU and Redbridge surveys through mid-August show the party holding steady primary support in the low-to-mid 20s, frequently placing second or pressing the majors, with strength concentrated in regional and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preference flows and the shift to Warren Pickering’s leadership in early August, underpins the 61% implied probability. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s after the late-July transition to Premier Ben Carroll, while the Coalition leads or ties on most two-party-preferred measures; both majors are therefore priced as near-certain top-two finishers. The Greens hold double-digit primary support but trail in seat projections, and smaller parties face high barriers in single-member districts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
One Nation 61%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 7.7%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,069 ปริมาณ
$17,069 ปริมาณ
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
61%
Greens
13%
Labor
8%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Liberal–National
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 61%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 7.7%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,069 ปริมาณ
$17,069 ปริมาณ
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
$5,842 ปริมาณ
61%
Greens
$163 ปริมาณ
13%
Labor
$6,417 ปริมาณ
8%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,123 ปริมาณ
<1%
Liberal–National
$1,073 ปริมาณ
<1%
Animal Justice
$822 ปริมาณ
<1%
Libertarian
$717 ปริมาณ
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 ปริมาณ
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in lower house seats at Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU and Redbridge surveys through mid-August show the party holding steady primary support in the low-to-mid 20s, frequently placing second or pressing the majors, with strength concentrated in regional and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preference flows and the shift to Warren Pickering’s leadership in early August, underpins the 61% implied probability. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s after the late-July transition to Premier Ben Carroll, while the Coalition leads or ties on most two-party-preferred measures; both majors are therefore priced as near-certain top-two finishers. The Greens hold double-digit primary support but trail in seat projections, and smaller parties face high barriers in single-member districts.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,069วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in lower house seats at Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU and Redbridge surveys through mid-August show the party holding steady primary support in the low-to-mid 20s, frequently placing second or pressing the majors, with strength concentrated in regional and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preference flows and the shift to Warren Pickering’s leadership in early August, underpins the 61% implied probability. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s after the late-July transition to Premier Ben Carroll, while the Coalition leads or ties on most two-party-preferred measures; both majors are therefore priced as near-certain top-two finishers. The Greens hold double-digit primary support but trail in seat projections, and smaller parties face high barriers in single-member districts.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$17,069วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 28, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**One Nation leads trader expectations for third place in lower house seats at Victoria’s 28 November 2026 state election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, DemosAU and Redbridge surveys through mid-August show the party holding steady primary support in the low-to-mid 20s, frequently placing second or pressing the majors, with strength concentrated in regional and outer-metropolitan electorates. This positioning, combined with preference flows and the shift to Warren Pickering’s leadership in early August, underpins the 61% implied probability. Labor’s primary vote has remained in the mid-20s after the late-July transition to Premier Ben Carroll, while the Coalition leads or ties on most two-party-preferred measures; both majors are therefore priced as near-certain top-two finishers. The Greens hold double-digit primary support but trail in seat projections, and smaller parties face high barriers in single-member districts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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