**Recent polling and the early campaign stage position the CAQ for a seat total most likely in the mid-20s to low-30s.** After eight years in government, the party under new leader Christine Fréchette trails the Parti Québécois in most aggregates but narrowed the gap sharply in a late-August Synopsis poll, reaching statistical parity at 27-28% amid gains among francophones, women, and voters over 55. Seat models from 338Canada currently project roughly 28 CAQ seats with a wide range reflecting vote efficiency, regional concentration, and competition from the PQ, PLQ, and PCQ. The October 5 election remains weeks away, leaving room for further shifts in turnout, undecided voters, and responses to economic pressures including the U.S. trade environment. These dynamics support trader emphasis on outcomes clustered around or just above 30 seats rather than a return to the large majorities of prior cycles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วQuebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
Quebec General Election: CAQ # Seats?
30+ 42%
25-29 22%
20-24 15%
15-19 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 5, 2026
<5
2%
5-9
8%
10-14
9%
15-19
11%
20-24
15%
25-29
22%
30+
42%
30+ 42%
25-29 22%
20-24 15%
15-19 11%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 5, 2026
<5
$501 ปริมาณ
2%
5-9
$907 ปริมาณ
8%
10-14
$2,306 ปริมาณ
9%
15-19
$858 ปริมาณ
11%
20-24
$621 ปริมาณ
15%
25-29
$1,002 ปริมาณ
22%
30+
$1,553 ปริมาณ
42%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and the early campaign stage position the CAQ for a seat total most likely in the mid-20s to low-30s.** After eight years in government, the party under new leader Christine Fréchette trails the Parti Québécois in most aggregates but narrowed the gap sharply in a late-August Synopsis poll, reaching statistical parity at 27-28% amid gains among francophones, women, and voters over 55. Seat models from 338Canada currently project roughly 28 CAQ seats with a wide range reflecting vote efficiency, regional concentration, and competition from the PQ, PLQ, and PCQ. The October 5 election remains weeks away, leaving room for further shifts in turnout, undecided voters, and responses to economic pressures including the U.S. trade environment. These dynamics support trader emphasis on outcomes clustered around or just above 30 seats rather than a return to the large majorities of prior cycles.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,748วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).**Recent polling and the early campaign stage position the CAQ for a seat total most likely in the mid-20s to low-30s.** After eight years in government, the party under new leader Christine Fréchette trails the Parti Québécois in most aggregates but narrowed the gap sharply in a late-August Synopsis poll, reaching statistical parity at 27-28% amid gains among francophones, women, and voters over 55. Seat models from 338Canada currently project roughly 28 CAQ seats with a wide range reflecting vote efficiency, regional concentration, and competition from the PQ, PLQ, and PCQ. The October 5 election remains weeks away, leaving room for further shifts in turnout, undecided voters, and responses to economic pressures including the U.S. trade environment. These dynamics support trader emphasis on outcomes clustered around or just above 30 seats rather than a return to the large majorities of prior cycles.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by candidates whose political affiliation is listed as the specified party in the official election results, not any coalition or parliamentary group of which the party may be part. Seats won by candidates listed under any other affiliation will not be counted, regardless of any endorsement or association with the specified party. Any post-election change in seat ownership or party affiliation, including floor crossings, resignations, or by-elections, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$7,748วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 5, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 27, 2026, 8:15 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.electionsquebec.qc.caผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling and the early campaign stage position the CAQ for a seat total most likely in the mid-20s to low-30s.** After eight years in government, the party under new leader Christine Fréchette trails the Parti Québécois in most aggregates but narrowed the gap sharply in a late-August Synopsis poll, reaching statistical parity at 27-28% amid gains among francophones, women, and voters over 55. Seat models from 338Canada currently project roughly 28 CAQ seats with a wide range reflecting vote efficiency, regional concentration, and competition from the PQ, PLQ, and PCQ. The October 5 election remains weeks away, leaving room for further shifts in turnout, undecided voters, and responses to economic pressures including the U.S. trade environment. These dynamics support trader emphasis on outcomes clustered around or just above 30 seats rather than a return to the large majorities of prior cycles.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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