Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in NYC on August 24?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 24?
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 37%
82-83°F 12%
76-77°F 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
67°F or below
<1%
68-69°F
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
3%
76-77°F
6%
78-79°F
37%
80-81°F
45%
82-83°F
12%
84-85°F
4%
86°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 45%
78-79°F 37%
82-83°F 12%
76-77°F 6%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
67°F or below
$78 Wol.
<1%
68-69°F
$78 Wol.
<1%
70-71°F
$78 Wol.
<1%
72-73°F
$160 Wol.
1%
74-75°F
$231 Wol.
3%
76-77°F
$357 Wol.
6%
78-79°F
$685 Wol.
37%
80-81°F
$2,716 Wol.
45%
82-83°F
$711 Wol.
12%
84-85°F
$120 Wol.
4%
86°F or higher
$423 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,637Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$5,637Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service ensemble forecasts and model consensus have driven the tight clustering of market-implied odds around 78–81°F for New York City’s maximum temperature on August 24, reflecting modest uncertainty in peak heating under a typical late-summer high-pressure pattern. Subtle variations in predicted sea-breeze timing, boundary-layer moisture, and urban heat-island amplification differentiate the leading bins, with traders weighting the most recent short-range guidance that places the highest likelihood near 80–81°F. Historical late-August climatology in the region shows similar day-to-day spreads of 3–5°F due to these local factors, underscoring why no single outcome exceeds a 42% implied probability ahead of tomorrow’s observations at official stations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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