**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Austin project a high near 104°F on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F. Model consensus and short-range guidance show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping temperatures in the upper 103–105°F range rather than pushing substantially higher or dropping below 102°F. Historical August climatology (average highs near 96–100°F) underscores the current anomaly driven by the ridge’s position, but no major pattern shift or tropical influence is expected to alter conditions before resolution. Trader positioning around 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) closely tracks these official point forecasts and ensemble outputs, with lower probabilities on extremes reflecting limited upside potential from the stable synoptic pattern. Updated NWS discussions and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHighest temperature in Austin on August 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on August 24?
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 11%
100-101°F 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
<1%
96-97°F
1%
98-99°F
2%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
30%
104-105°F
55%
106-107°F
11%
108-109°F
3%
110-111°F
1%
112-113°F
1%
114°F or higher
<1%
104-105°F 55%
102-103°F 30%
106-107°F 11%
100-101°F 5%
NOWE
NOWE
Aug 24, 2026
95°F or below
$51 Wol.
<1%
96-97°F
$90 Wol.
1%
98-99°F
$117 Wol.
2%
100-101°F
$219 Wol.
5%
102-103°F
$429 Wol.
30%
104-105°F
$893 Wol.
55%
106-107°F
$87 Wol.
11%
108-109°F
$61 Wol.
3%
110-111°F
$71 Wol.
1%
112-113°F
$41 Wol.
1%
114°F or higher
$24 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Austin project a high near 104°F on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F.
Model consensus and short-range guidance show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping temperatures in the upper 103–105°F range rather than pushing substantially higher or dropping below 102°F. Historical August climatology (average highs near 96–100°F) underscores the current anomaly driven by the ridge’s position, but no major pattern shift or tropical influence is expected to alter conditions before resolution.
Trader positioning around 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) closely tracks these official point forecasts and ensemble outputs, with lower probabilities on extremes reflecting limited upside potential from the stable synoptic pattern. Updated NWS discussions and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,084Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Austin project a high near 104°F on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F.
Model consensus and short-range guidance show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping temperatures in the upper 103–105°F range rather than pushing substantially higher or dropping below 102°F. Historical August climatology (average highs near 96–100°F) underscores the current anomaly driven by the ridge’s position, but no major pattern shift or tropical influence is expected to alter conditions before resolution.
Trader positioning around 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) closely tracks these official point forecasts and ensemble outputs, with lower probabilities on extremes reflecting limited upside potential from the stable synoptic pattern. Updated NWS discussions and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Wolumen
$2,084Data zakończenia
Aug 24, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 22, 2026, 8:56 PM ETŹródło rozstrzygnięcia
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Official National Weather Service forecasts for Austin project a high near 104°F on August 24 under persistent subtropical ridging, clear skies, and light southerly flow.** This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or precipitation, consistent with the ongoing Central Texas heat wave where recent daily maxima have reached 105–107°F. Model consensus and short-range guidance show little day-to-day variability through midweek, keeping temperatures in the upper 103–105°F range rather than pushing substantially higher or dropping below 102°F. Historical August climatology (average highs near 96–100°F) underscores the current anomaly driven by the ridge’s position, but no major pattern shift or tropical influence is expected to alter conditions before resolution. Trader positioning around 104–105°F (53.5% implied probability) closely tracks these official point forecasts and ensemble outputs, with lower probabilities on extremes reflecting limited upside potential from the stable synoptic pattern. Updated NWS discussions and model runs remain the key near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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