Recent official forecasts from agencies including the Turkish State Meteorological Service and international models converge on a daytime high of 34–35°C for Ankara on August 23, 2026, under partly cloudy skies, light northwesterly winds, and negligible precipitation. This aligns with the market’s strong weighting toward those outcomes. Ankara’s late-August climatology typically features highs near 31–32°C at its ~900 m elevation, where radiative heating and urban heat retention can push peaks 2–4°C above average during stable high-pressure periods. Multiple model runs show minimal spread around these values, with no significant frontal systems or cloud cover expected to moderate temperatures before peak afternoon readings. Traders have incorporated this consensus, reflected in the 74.5% implied probability for 35°C and secondary support for 34°C. Updated guidance through the morning will provide the final observational inputs for resolution.