**Persistent southwest monsoon (habagat) activity and associated cloud cover are the dominant drivers of trader sentiment for Manila’s minimum temperature on August 25, 2026.** PAGASA forecasts indicate continued cloudy skies with scattered rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila on August 23–25, consistent with the ongoing wet-season pattern that has produced moderate-to-heavy rainfall across western Luzon in recent days. Typical August overnight lows in Manila range 24–26 °C; the near-even market split between “31 °C or higher” (46 %) and “21 °C or below” (45.5 %) reflects uncertainty over how much the monsoon’s cloud deck and precipitation will compress the diurnal temperature range. Cloud cover and rain suppress daytime heating while reducing nocturnal radiative cooling, keeping minimum temperatures closer to the seasonal average rather than allowing extremes. Clear-sky breaks could permit greater nighttime cooling toward the lower-20s °C range, whereas persistent overcast or heavy rain would favor minima near or above 25 °C. No tropical cyclone is currently projected to pass near the Philippines during the window, so steering patterns and monsoon strength remain the key variables. Updated PAGASA outlooks and model runs over the next 48 hours will likely clarify whether conditions trend toward the middle of the distribution or produce the rarer extremes currently priced near parity.