Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a suburban Philadelphia seat covering much of Montgomery County that has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Dean secured re-election in 2024 with 59 percent of the vote and faced no significant primary opposition in May 2026, preserving her name recognition, fundraising edge, and institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who emerged from her party’s primary, trails substantially in trader pricing. The implied probability reflects the district’s partisan baseline and limited signs of a competitive national environment that could alter the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated Republican surge tied to turnout or economic conditions could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoPA-04 House Election Winner
PA-04 House Election Winner
$19,078 Vol.
$19,078 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
94%
Republican Party
6%
$19,078 Vol.
$19,078 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Democratic Party
$6,620 Vol.
94%
Republican Party
$12,459 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a suburban Philadelphia seat covering much of Montgomery County that has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Dean secured re-election in 2024 with 59 percent of the vote and faced no significant primary opposition in May 2026, preserving her name recognition, fundraising edge, and institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who emerged from her party’s primary, trails substantially in trader pricing. The implied probability reflects the district’s partisan baseline and limited signs of a competitive national environment that could alter the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated Republican surge tied to turnout or economic conditions could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$19,078Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a suburban Philadelphia seat covering much of Montgomery County that has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Dean secured re-election in 2024 with 59 percent of the vote and faced no significant primary opposition in May 2026, preserving her name recognition, fundraising edge, and institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who emerged from her party’s primary, trails substantially in trader pricing. The implied probability reflects the district’s partisan baseline and limited signs of a competitive national environment that could alter the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated Republican surge tied to turnout or economic conditions could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,078Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Madeleine Dean holds a commanding position in Pennsylvania’s 4th congressional district, a suburban Philadelphia seat covering much of Montgomery County that has consistently favored Democratic candidates in recent cycles. Dean secured re-election in 2024 with 59 percent of the vote and faced no significant primary opposition in May 2026, preserving her name recognition, fundraising edge, and institutional support ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Aurora Stuski, who emerged from her party’s primary, trails substantially in trader pricing. The implied probability reflects the district’s partisan baseline and limited signs of a competitive national environment that could alter the outcome. Late developments such as a major scandal, health-related withdrawal, or an unanticipated Republican surge tied to turnout or economic conditions could narrow the gap, though current evidence shows no such catalysts.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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