Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with resistance from business groups and some Democratic allies, has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent polling shows a narrow or tied race with significant undecided voters, yet analysts highlight risks of high-net-worth migration, revenue leakage, and post-election constitutional challenges over residency and valuation rules. Competing ballot measures aimed at nullifying the tax further complicate passage. The 73% implied probability for rejection reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these institutional and economic headwinds over the final campaign months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
27% probabilità
$3,677,981 Vol.
$3,677,981 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Sì
27% probabilità
$3,677,981 Vol.
$3,677,981 Vol.
2 nov 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with resistance from business groups and some Democratic allies, has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent polling shows a narrow or tied race with significant undecided voters, yet analysts highlight risks of high-net-worth migration, revenue leakage, and post-election constitutional challenges over residency and valuation rules. Competing ballot measures aimed at nullifying the tax further complicate passage. The 73% implied probability for rejection reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these institutional and economic headwinds over the final campaign months.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,677,981Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with resistance from business groups and some Democratic allies, has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent polling shows a narrow or tied race with significant undecided voters, yet analysts highlight risks of high-net-worth migration, revenue leakage, and post-election constitutional challenges over residency and valuation rules. Competing ballot measures aimed at nullifying the tax further complicate passage. The 73% implied probability for rejection reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these institutional and economic headwinds over the final campaign months.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,677,981Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Governor Gavin Newsom’s vocal opposition to Proposition 40, combined with resistance from business groups and some Democratic allies, has shaped trader expectations that the one-time 5% wealth tax on billionaires will fail on the November 3, 2026 ballot. Recent polling shows a narrow or tied race with significant undecided voters, yet analysts highlight risks of high-net-worth migration, revenue leakage, and post-election constitutional challenges over residency and valuation rules. Competing ballot measures aimed at nullifying the tax further complicate passage. The 73% implied probability for rejection reflects the wisdom of crowds assessing these institutional and economic headwinds over the final campaign months.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Fai attenzione ai link esterni.
Domande frequenti